Dynamics Of Pakistan's Approaches To The United States In The Management Of 9/11 Crisis

The nature of international system is anarchic,where states strive for ultimate goal of Security and survival.It is always sought against certain threats and either of the two predominant strategies can be adopted by states for being secure i.e.self-help or cooperation/alliances with others.States pursue foreign policies to maximize their security,and a number of factors such as the changing dynamics in international politics,the position/place of states in International System and the physical as well as non-physical attributes of their identities are determining factors.In twentieth century,states were facing traditional security threats from their rival states,however the unfolding process of globalization has amplified the matrix of non-traditional security threats such as;terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,which replaced'Comprehensive Security' with 'Security' as the end goal of states.The steady process of globalization has eradicated the state borders and transformed the world into a global village where public goods,information,peoples and culture is flourishing without any obstruction.However,the globalization has also manifested the mushrooming of terrorist organizations with global reach.It has also change in character as the world moves away from the state sponsored phenomenon of the 1980s.Since the 1996 the percentage of terror attacks increased closer to 200%as compared to 1,673 terror attacks per year during 1968-89.In the meantime,in late 1990s Osama bin Laden a Saudi dissident had setup al-Qaeda a terrorist organization with global aspirations.He was accusing the United States for anarchy and chaos in the Muslim world and declared Jihad against Washington.Therefore,in a 1998 coordinated attack al Qaeda target the U.S.embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.Consequently,in an abortive retaliatory attack the United States fired cruise missiles on bin Laden hideouts in Afghanistan,but neither bin Laden nor other major leader of al-Qaeda was killed.However,the American retaliation encouraged bin Laden to attack on American homeland.The catastrophe on the day of September 11,2001 has attracted the keenest interest of experts in the field of foreign policy to study centrality of decisions taken by the states and other independent actors.The mayhem on WTC and Pentagon switched the attention of Bush administration from low politics to high politics,and therefore combating terrorism occupied the center stage in the following years.Consequently,President Bush declared the war against terrorism and figured out Osama bin Laden as culprit behind the attacks.The brutality in the United States not only transformed the global politico-security dimensions but also altered the South Asian politico-security matrix.Afghanistan turned into the first target of American assault against global war on terrorism and Pakistan being a neighboring country was compelled to play a frontline state role in the war against terrorism.The United States was cognizant about Pakistan's close relations with the rogue regime of Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan's involvement in the war against terrorism was inevitable for Washington due to two reasons;strategic location and close relationship with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.Bush administration threaten Pakistan for grave consequences if it decline to become part of global coalition.Therefore,the American decision to wage war against al-Qaeda triggered the worst foreign policy crisis for Pakistan.The thesis has applied the 'Model of State Behavior in Crisis' to explain the post 9/11 crisis foreign policy decision making and management process in Pakistan.The model is proposed by Michael Brecher to explain micro level analysis;i.e.the perceptions and actions of states in foreign policy crisis.The key variables of the model are distributed into four stages.The triggering act,event or environmental change at t1 stage is prerequisite for a foreign policy crisis,which stimulate the decision maker's perceptions of value threats.The attacks by al-Qaeda on United States and subsequent decision by President Bush to invade Afghanistan in search of bin Laden threaten the core values of Pakistan and time pressure stimulated the psychological stress in decision makers to take immediate decision at t2 stage.The crisis management process was commenced at t3 stage which include the information sources,setting up or activation of decisional forum,consultation process,and search for foreign policy alternatives.Pakistan acquired information through ordinary and special channels.The ordinary channels were national and international print and electronic media,whereas the special channels included;the then director general of ISI Lt.General Mahmood Ahmed and Pakistan ambassador to Washington MaleehaLodhi.On the following day of 9/11,Mahmood and Lodhi held a meeting with Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and other State Department and the Pentagon officials.Armitage threaten Pakistan for dire consequences if it rejects to become part of American war and handed over a paper of seven demands.General Mahmood quickly conveyed the terse message to President Pervez Musharraf and explained the gravity of situation.On the other hand,in a telephonic conversation Secretary of State Collin Powel categorically questioned Pervez Musharraf "either you are with us or against us".Consequently,on the evening of 12 September,President Pervez Musharraf summoned the National Security Council(NSC)meeting at the Army house Rawalpindi.The foreign minister,foreign secretary,President Pervez Musharraf and two anonymous generals from army headquarters attended the meeting.The meeting was lasted for nearly four hours and decision makers evaluated strengths and weaknesses of the country and potential implications of American war for Pakistan.As a result of lengthy discussion,the three foreign policy alternatives were appearedi.e.alliance with the Taliban,remain neutral in war on terrorism and alliance with the U.S.But,in the context of domestic and international factors first two alternatives were harmful for the country,while the third was most rational with high expected utilities.Thus,the decision makers decided to join the American led coalition against the war on terrorism,which diffused the crisis.Prior to 9/11,Pakistan was the only country who recognized the Taliban regime,and the relationship was based on some strategic calculations from Pakistani side.Since 1947,it was utmost desire of Pakistan to install a benevolent regime in Kabul to diffuse the issue of Durand Line and search for strategic depth to Pakistan in case of war with India.But the 9/11 transformed the entire scenario for Pakistan.The United States overtly threaten Pakistan for grave repercussions and policy makers were concerned that the United States would attack on Northern Areas and Pakistani Kashmir in search of al-Qaeda camps there and India would love to assist in the endeavor.Secondly,the military and economic vulnerability was not in favor of any adventure with the super power.Third,the decision makers were concerned that the nuclear weapons of the country are soft target of the United States and India,due to their bellicosity with nuclear weapons of Pakistan.Last but not least was the Kashmir cause.Pakistan is a party in the conflict and supporting freedom struggle of Kashmiris through different channels including;diplomatic and arming Mujahedeen to fight with Indian occupied forces.But the U.S.war against terrorism changed the entire narrative and it was difficult to differentiate terrorists and freedom fighters.The policy of Pakistan to support Mujahedeen in Kashmir was in doldrums and decision makers pretended that the United States will declare Pakistan a terrorist state for supporting terrorism.In the following week,President Pervez Musharraf took the decision in Corps Commanders and Cabinet meeting,where he explained that it is matter of principle to support good against evil.During the meeting some commanders expressed the dissension but Musharraf suppressed them with his unmatched power.He also taken his decision to political parties,journalists,academia and civil society,where he explained that Pakistan is facing worst foreign policy crisis and leadership needs support to develop national consensus.Finally,on 19th September 2001,by accepting the demands of United States he announced new foreign policy of the country in a televised address to nation.Chapter 1,gives the brief introduction of September 11 terror attacks and subsequent foreign policy crisis for Pakistan.Besides,it explain the main research questions,argument,and contribution to existing literature on the given topic.Before proceeding to theoretical framework,it has extensively review the literature and then applied the appropriate theoretical framework to explain the study in hand.After that,a detailed explanation has given for research methodology and organization of the study.Chapter 2,illuminate the general foreign policy making process in Pakistan.It argues that foreign policy of a state is always grounded on where you want to go as a sovereign and independent state.This is the basic determinant of a country's foreign policy,and is influenced by history and geography of a state.Foreign policy is total sum of the values that must guide its conduct in the comity of nations and of its national interest that it must protect and safeguard.Foreign policy making process is not simple as it looks like,however it is shaped by various formal and informal actors.It is based on three stages including;identification of foreign policy issue and options,decision making process,and implementation.In Pakistan,foreign policy is shaped by various formal and informal actors,and before embarking on a policy decision,input about an act in external environment is attained through overt and covert sources.The intelligence agencies are the covert source and foreign office missions in abroad and national/international print and electronic media are overt source.The information provided by the missions and intelligence is analyzed in various meetings of foreign office,military/intelligence,and the cabinet.Though,the ministry of foreign affairs is focal point for initiating foreign policy proposals,however the decisions are taken by the Cabinet and Prime Minister and President's assent is mandatory for implementation.Despite the informal role,military consistently playing the vital role in foreign and security policy with regard to India and Afghanistan.Moreover,the policy proposals of vital importance are discussed on parliament floor but it is not obligatory for the government to do so and if a proposal is concerned with other ministries/divisions they are consulted through the defined parameters in the constitution.It is also discovered that opinions of media,civil society,academia and policy oriented think tanks entertained by the policy makers in foreign policy making process.Chapter 3,provides the historical background of foreign policy of the country towards the United States since early days.It highlights the foreign policy strategies adopted by Pakistan to secure the insecure state,as Pakistan inherited the enmity with India on territorial disputes and other outstanding issues such as water dispute and division of military and economic resources.During the first few years,Pakistan went on nonaliged foreign policy and established relations based on good will and coexistence.But,the prevailing animosity from India forced Pakistan to join American sponsored military alliances and therefore,in 1954 and 1955 Pakistan entered into SEATO and CENTO respectively.As a result,Pakistan received substantial military and economic assistance from the U.S.and modernized its military.But,the U.S.abstinence to support Pakistan in 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pak wars distanced two allies.However,the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan once again brought two difficult allies together and Pakistan played frontline state role in U.S.proxy war.Resultantly Washington rewarded Islamabad with generous military and economic assistance.But,after Soviet demise from Afghanistan,the United States once again left Pakistan in mess and imposed sanctions in retaliation of nuclear program,and expressed its apprehensions over Pakistani relations with the Taliban.Chapter 4,is designed to trace the crisis foreign policy making and management process of Pakistan after September 11 terror attacks.Model of State Behavior in Crisis successfully traced the crisis foreign policy decision-making process.It argues that 9/11 terror attacks and subsequent announcement by the U.S.to fight against global terrorism transformed the global and regional politico-security dimensions at t1 stage.Immediately,the U.S.labeled bin Laden and al-Qaeda for terrorism on WTC,and President Bush introduced "Bush Doctrine" to fight against global terrorism.To attack on Afghanistan the U.S.was desperately in need of Pakistan's support and Washington threaten Islamabad to bomb back into Stone Age if it chooses to go along with the Taliban and al-Qaeda.The top hierarchy in Pakistan perceived grave threat to core values/objectives of the country and finite time to response increased the psychological stress in leadership at t2 stage.The crisis management process was commenced at the t3 stage which encompassed sources of information,decisional forum,consultation and consideration of alternatives.Therefore,the foreign policy choice was made at the t4 stage,which diffused the foreign policy crisis.Chapter 5,is a follow of previous one;it discusses influential factors behind post 9/11 foreign policy U-turn,and is divided into two parts internal and external factors respectively.Among the domestic determinants security and survival of the country was a key factor which persuaded the decision makers to make adjustments in foreign policy.Moreover,country was struggling to put economy back on right track and foreign economic assistance was critical.Pakistan is facing persistent enmity from India and after realization of conventional military disparity with India,Islamabad developed nuclear weapons to maintain balance of power in the region.However,the emerging dynamics after September 11,attacks increased the skepticism in decision makers for a possible strike on nuclear installations.But it was assuming that alliance with the U.S.will not only save its strategic assets but Washington will also resume the delivery of military assistance and weapons.Moreover,Kashmir cause,domestic terrorism and personal lust of President Pervez Musharraf to remain in Power were another influential factors.Externally,Pakistan's fragile relations with the Taliban,Indo-United States strategic partnership,sympathy of international community with the U.S.and past operations by the U.S.to curb terrorism in Afghanistan left no option but to take a twist in its foreign policy towards Afghanistan and the United States.Pakistan was paying heavy price by recognizing Taliban in terms of Talbanization of its society and economic degradation through smuggling of goods,weapons and narcotics trafficking.In the meantime,Pakistan wanted to contain expanding Indian strategic partnership with the U.S.and 9/11 was a perfect opportunity to revive Islamabad's relations with Washington.Chapter 6,concluding the study.The Model of 'State Behavior in Crisis' and process tracing has proven that terror attacks on WTC and Pentagon triggered the foreign policy crisis for Pakistan and subsequent decision by Islamabad to work with the United States diffused the crisis and paved the way for a strategic partnership.This dissertation contributes to the discourse of crisis foreign Policy decision making and management process in IR in general and to studies on Pakistan's foreign policy crisis management in particular.In the meantime,the study have also found some limitations during research and provides valuable recommendations to improve the general and crisis foreign policy making process.