Research On Population Structure,Adjustment Of Fertility Policy And Housing Demand

With the rapid development of urbanization in China,the urban population is gathering,and the demand for housing continues to increase.Especially since the implementation of the monetization reform of housing distribution in 1998,the housing demand has been further released through the allocation of housing resources through market mechanisms;With the continuous rise,high housing prices have seriously affected the residents' demand for self-occupied housing,and how to increase the housing demand of residents with affordability is an urgent problem to be solved.There are many factors that affect people's housing demand,of which the total population and structure are the main factors that affect housing demand in the long run.This paper attempts to explore how China's demographic factors affect housing demand from the perspectives of fertility changes,birth policy adjustments and population aging,and attempts to explain the internal mechanism between the two.On the basis of fully sorting out the development trends of the literature,this paper firstly uses qualitative analysis and comparative analysis to comprehensively analyze the current situation of China's population aging and its potential demand for the housing market;secondly,it uses theoretical and empirical methods to analyze The theoretical path of demographic structure index with variable fertility rate and old-age dependency ratio affecting housing demand,and an empirical test of the theoretical path;Finally,the two adjustments of China's fertility policy are regarded as quasi-natural experiments,and the double difference method The impact of population policy on housing demand further demonstrates the theme of population structure affecting housing demand.The research conclusions of this article indicate:(1)The impact of the ageing problem highlighted by the aging population on the housing market is both an opportunity and a challenge.On the one hand,the ageing problem of the aging population can create a new demand for the housing market;Pressure,traditional cultural beliefs and the expectation of the elderly form constraints on housing demand.(2)Through the establishment of a three-stage OLG model,the impact of population structure changes on housing demand is theoretically analyzed.The research shows that the fertility rate and the old-age dependency ratio are inversely related to housing demand,that is,the decline in birth rate will promote housing demand,and The rise of the aging population will reduce housing demand.Through the static and dynamic panel fixed-effect model,the empirical analysis of the impact of China's demographic changes on housing demand.The empirical results show that the relationship between the birth rate and the reverse change in housing demand is empirically consistent with the theoretical conclusions.However,there is a significant positive relationship between the old-age dependency ratio and housing demand,which is contrary to the conclusion of the theoretical analysis.This may be largely related to the real estate value-added effect in China's housing reform marketization process and the "altruism" in traditional culture."Sex" is related to the phenomenon of intergenerational income transfer in the context of family pension.(3)Fertility policy adjustments can affect housing demand by affecting birth rates.Specifically,this paper uses two exogenous policy shocks in 2014 and 2016 to construct a quasi-natural experiment,and uses the double difference method to assess the causal effect of changes in fertility policy on housing demand changes.The study found that the birth rate shock brought about by the adjustment of fertility policies reduced housing demand,and the overall two-child policy effect was greater than that of two children alone.The mechanism for the change in housing demand is that the increase in the birth rate of a family significantly increases its childcare costs,thereby reducing the investment or consumption of housing assets.The adjustment of the birth policy has a more prominent effect on the change in housing demand in cities with a low fertility rate and a low marketization level.This study can provide strong empirical evidence for the demographic structure effect of housing market fluctuations.In summary,this article explains the changes in China's housing demand market from the perspective of demographic changes in recent years,which has important policy implications for implementing the national strategy for balanced population development and determining housing development goals that meet the development requirements of the new era.