Research On The Shock Of China's Population Aging On Housing Demand

It is inevitable that China's population aging will continue to intensify in the future,and thus the driving force for housing demand will be seriously insufficient,which will bring unprecedented impact to the housing market.Clarifying the changing trend of China's population aging and its impact on housing demand is conducive to revealing the reasons for future housing market crises,and to providing theoretical and policy basis for the establishment of warning mechanism of housing market crisis related to the population age structure in a severely aging society.This paper explores the temporal and spatial characteristics and changing trends of China's population aging by using exploratory spatial data analysis method and cohort factor population forecasting method.Moreover,it examines the impact of population aging on housing demand from multi-dimensional perspectives such as dynamic panel model,moderation model,mediation model,moderated mediation model,and dynamic Spatial Durbin Model.The main contributions are as follows:1.Propose that China's population aging has the characteristic of"Matthew effect",and explore the Spatio-temporal characteristics and changing trend of China's population aging.To construct the Capacity Index of Economic Old-age Dependency,and analyze from different dimensions of population age structure that China's population aging has the time change trend of"Three Drops,One Frequency and Two Accelerations"and the spatial pattern of uneven spatial agglomeration,showing the characteristics of a large elderly population base,a rapid growth and an enhanced regional"Matthew effect".Among them,population migration promotes the"Positive Matthew effect"of regional population aging of age structure and enhances the"Negative Matthew effect"of regional Capacity Index of Economic Old-age Dependency.From the population forecast results,it is found that the degree of population aging in China will continue to deepen in the future.Under the three different total population fertility prediction schemes,China's population size will gradually shrink before 2030,the population age structure will become increasingly aging,the labor force population will continue to decrease,and a small peak of population aging will be ushered around 2025.2.Build a Three-Period OLG Model based on Family Life Cycle theory to empirically verify the impact trend of population aging on housing demand.Based on the research conclusion of Mankiw&Weil(1989)^[2],this paper preliminarily analyzes that the inhibitory effect of China's population aging on housing demand will continue to deepen,and the housing market will lose demand power in 2025.This paper constructs a Three-Period OLG Model based on Family Life Cycle theory and demonstrates the inhibitory impact of population aging on housing demand.The research conclusions are as follows:the possibility of house purchase in the elderly is lower than that in adulthood;the empirical results show that housing demand has significant dynamics;population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on both quantitative housing demand(number of housing sales units)and quality housing demand(housing sales area),and the inhibitory effect on housing sales area is stronger than the negative impact of housing sales units.With the aggravation of population aging,its inhibitory effect on housing demand will be greater and greater.3.Reveal the action paths of population aging on inhibiting housing demand,and identify that the mediating effect of labor supply and health crowding out of population aging on inhibiting housing demand will be affected by the moderating effect of population fertility and population migration.Construct moderation model,mediation model and moderated mediation model,to empirically test that China's population aging will reduce housing demand through inhibiting labor supply and increasing health investment.Moreover,under the moderating effect of population fertility and population migration,the negative effect of population aging on housing demand will be smoothed.Considering both the effects of moderation and mediation,it is found that inhibitory effect of population aging on housing demand through the negative mediation effect of labor supply and health crowding-out will be ironed due to the moderation effects of population fertility and population migration.4.Propose that the impact of population aging on housing demand has differentiation characteristics,and empirically study the multi-dimensional heterogeneous impact and spatial spillover effect of population aging on housing demand.Constructing the interaction terms of population aging and regional differences,population aging time and speed differences and public service supply differences,to demonstrate that the impact of population aging on housing demand has multi-dimensional heterogeneity.The conclusions are as follows:the population aging in the central region will significantly inhibit the housing demand,while the negative impact in the eastern and western regions is not significant;the inhibitory effect of population aging on housing demand is weaker in areas that enter population aging society first than in areas that enter population aging society later;the inhibitory effect of population aging on housing demand is stronger in areas with rapid population aging growth than in areas with slow population aging growth;the inhibitory effect of population aging on housing demand is less inn areas with higher public service supply level than in areas with lower level of public service supply.From the research conclusion of spatial effect,the aging population in the surrounding areas has a significant negative spatial spillover effect on local housing demand.It can be seen that the rapid population aging has a greater inhibitory effect on housing demand.Improving the supply level of public services is conducive to alleviate the negative impact of population aging on housing demand.At the same time,we should also pay attention to the negative impact of population aging in surrounding areas on local housing demand.In short,the above research conclusions of this paper clarify the impact trend,action path and differentiation characteristics of population aging on housing demand.More importantly,it reveals the impact of severe population aging on the housing market,which is conducive to understanding the transmission path of population aging affecting housing demand from a multi-dimensional perspective,making timely responses and adjustments to the fluctuations in housing demand caused by changes in population age structure,and ensuring the stable and healthy operation of the housing market.It has important theoretical and policy reference value for the government to formulate population related policies and real estate regulation policies.