| This research uses HAZUS© earthquake loss estimation methodology for sensitivity analysis for earthquake scenarios in San Francisco County. Urbanization compounds the problems associated with earthquake disasters in such large cities. Furthermore, forecasting of unknown accuracy of earthquake loss estimation is of limited use and can be very misleading to stakeholders.; In addition, we suggest guidelines that could be used in response to earthquake catastrophes in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and for other regions. This analysis will help emergency managers and decision-makers understand the potential risk in their jurisdictions from an earthquake and will help them in preparing and planning for future catastrophes. In addition, this analysis provides other states and counties, which do not have adequate resources for full-scale data collection but face significant earthquake threats, with information enabling them to invest more strategically in data collection activities and to invest in preparing more accurate data for HAZUS input. Identifying the most significant factors contributing to earthquake risk provides the maximum benefit from the application of the HAZUS model for a limited data-collection budget.; The parameters that were used in the sensitivity analysis were: (1) site effect, (2) attenuation relationships, (3) ground failure effects, and (4) building inventory. In this analysis, we used hypothetical earthquake scenarios to test the number of people who would be killed, the number of people who would need hospitalization, the number of people who would seek shelter, and the total economic losses that would result from residential building damage. It is apparent that Potential Earth Science Hazards parameters (items 1–3 above) are more sensitive to earthquake magnitude than the Direct Physical Damage parameter (item 4 above). Ground failure effect (from no liquefaction susceptibility to detailed liquefaction susceptibility) is the most sensitive parameter in earthquake loss estimation. Following this in order of sensitivity are: attenuation function, site effect parameters (from soil type D to detailed soil type map of the region), and lastly effects of building construction parameters (high code standards to moderate code standards). Building construction sensitivity on the economic losses is relatively stable. For the other loss estimations—number of people who would be killed, number of people who would be hospitalized, and number of people who would be sheltered—the sensitivity of the other analysis parameters either grew or diminished with the increase in earthquake magnitude. |
