| Growing evidence demonstrating clear threats to the sustainability of human ecosystems—ozone depletion, global warming, desertification, deforestation, species loss—has given rise to a variety of sociological theories, from human ecology, political economy, neo-classical economics, ecological modernization, reflexive modernization, and world systems, addressing human-environment interactions. None, however, has been disciplined with empirical tests within a common framework. I undertake the first step in that disciplining here. In particular, I adopt and modify a conceptualization that relies on ecological first principles. Using a revised stochastic formulation of that conceptualization and the most comprehensive measure of environmental impact to date, the ecological footprint, I assess the human (anthropogenic) factors driving the environmental impacts of societies. The overall findings are supportive of the claims of human ecologists and political economists and contradict the claims of modernization theorists. Consistent with the theoretical claims of neo-Malthusians, population size has a proportional effect on the ecological footprint. Consistent with the claims of human ecologists, climate effects the scale of anthropogenic environmental impacts. Consistent with the claims of political economists and world systems theory, affluence monotonically increases the ecological footprint and urbanization further increases impacts. Contrary to the claims of neo-classical economists and ecological modernization theorists increased technological efficiency does not markedly reduce impacts. Contrary to reflexive modernization theory increased democratization does not reduce impacts. Overall, the findings suggest that in order to achieve sustainability, societies will have to curtail both population and economic growth. |
