Research On Grape Climate Regionalization And Risk Prevention Technology Integration In China From 1979 To 2018 Based On Multi-source Fusion Data

China's grape cultivation area and yield are in the forefront of the world,so it is of great significance to study the grape climate division and risk prevention technology.In this paper,using high-resolution multi-source fusion grid meteorological data,screening grape climate regionalization index and zoning threshold,we carried out the research of grape fine Climate Regionalization in China from 1979 to 2018,analyzed the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of suitable planting areas for different kinds of grapes,and established the integrated conceptual model of grape disaster risk prevention technology,which is the sustainable development and risk aversion technology of grape industry It provides a scientific basis.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The multi-source fusion temperature data produced by China Meteorological Administration land surface data assimilation system(CLDAS)has high applicability in China,and the data accuracy can meet the needs of grape climate regionalization.Compared with the global land surface data assimilation data(GLDAS)and ground observation data,it is found that both cldas and GLDAS can correctly describe the spatial distribution of regional air temperature in China,but cldas can reflect more details of the distribution;on the time scale,the temperature of cldas and GLDAS shows obvious diurnal and seasonal changes,and the change trend is basically consistent with the observation trend,but CLDA can not On the spatial scale,cldas and GLDAS can better represent the regional temperature changes in China at the provincial and station scales,but the cldas data show more detailed local changes;in the case of high altitude and high temperature,cldas temperature also has high accuracy.(2)The active accumulated temperature from 1979 to 2018 in China was calculated by using multi-source fusion data,and the spatiotemporal variation characteristics were analyzed.The distribution of active accumulated temperature is not uniform in the whole country,and it decreases gradually from south to north.Among them,most of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the Northeast Daxinganling area are the areas with the least heat resources in China,and the Jungar basin and Tarim Basin in Xinjiang are the areas with better thermal conditions in China.The m-k mutation test showed that AAT(10)and AAT(0)increased significantly after 1998.(3)The frost-free period from 1979 to 2018 was calculated using multi-source fusion data,and the spatial and temporal characteristics were analyzed.The first frost day is gradually delayed from north to south,from plateau to plain,from mountain to plain,and from mountain to plain.The last frost day is gradually advanced from north to south,from plateau to plain,from mountain to plain.Finally,the frost-free period in most regions of China is prolonged obviously.(4)The potential evapotranspiration(ET0)of China from 1979 to 2018 was calculated by using multi-source fusion data,and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics were analyzed.The spatial distribution pattern of annual average potential evapotranspiration is high in the South and northwest regions,and low in the northeast and central and western regions.For the arid area,ET0 showed an obvious downward trend before 1996,and then showed an upward trend after 1996.The ET0 of the other three regions showed a fluctuating downward trend from 1979 to 2018,and then increased.Through path analysis and calculation,it is found that the order of decision-making coefficients affecting ET0 is relative humidity(RH)>average temperature(Tavg)>wind speed(U2)>solar radiation(Rs),in which RH is the main decision-making factor of ET0.(5)Using multi-source fusion data to calculate the national dryness from 1979 to 2018,and analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics.The spatial distribution of different interdecadal dryness is relatively stable,and the spatial variation of different interdecadal dryness also presents certain regularity.The change trend of dryness degree,whether in the national or regional analysis,does not show the similar trend of frost free period and active accumulated temperature.Under the background of climate change,the overall change of dryness in recent 40 years presents the oscillation is repeated.(6)The active accumulated temperature and frost free period in growing season were selected as thermal indexes,and extreme low temperature areas were excluded.According to the water demand of different kinds of grapes,the dryness of growing season was taken as water index.The active accumulated temperature in growing season,frost free period in growing season and dryness in growing season were superimposed on the grid layer,and the grid climate regionalization map with high precision and refined to 6.25 km level was made in the four decades of 1980s,1990,2000 and 2010s.In general,in China,from 1979 to 2018,the regionalization of suitable grape planting showed an obvious northward and westward expansion.At the same time,the suitable grape varieties were also promoted from Vitis amurensis to Eurasia,which enriched the grape varieties in China.(7)Based on China's 1979-2018 grape climate regionalization,it can guide the cultivation of different grape species,but even in the suitable cultivation area,the occasional and extreme grape flood and drought disasters will have a serious impact on the growth and development of grapes.Through the establishment of grape flood and drought disaster risk prevention technology integration model,realize the integration of disaster prevention and mitigation technology from different sources when extreme disaster occurs in suitable grape planting area,so as to minimize the loss.Compared with the previous use of meteorological station data for mathematical interpolation calculation,this paper selects multi-source fusion data as meteorological input,which has long time series,high spatial-temporal resolution,reliable data quality,greatly improved the accuracy of zoning results,more detailed and accurate classification of suitable cultivation areas of grapes in China,and more targeted suggestions for cultivated varieties.At the same time,in view of the process of accidental extreme grape flood and drought disaster in suitable planting area,this study preliminarily explored the integrated means of grape flood and drought disaster risk prevention technology,to achieve the purpose of reducing damage,maintaining yield,improving quality,and increasing efficiency.