A Study On The Diffusion Mechanism Of Meteorological Disaster Risks And Its Some Applications In Assessment

Meteorological disaster is the most common natural disasters. Its negative impact on national economic development is growing, not only directly impact on hazard-affected bodies, but also on other bodies through the direct victims. In general, the influence of the direct victims transmits to other bodies in some diffusion ways, is appearing more "system" characteristics.At present, the study on meteorological disasters risk is mostly for single hazard-affected body.In response to these issues, this thesis mainly focus on the following four aspects conduct systematic study:1. Have analyzed the times characteristics of meteorological disaster risk.As we all know, with the intensification of global climate change, extreme weather and climate events show an increasing trend. Due to the relevance and systemic characteristics of economic and social,but the level of awareness is not strong enough in disaster prevention and mitigation, the resilience of hazard-affected bodies is significantly less than. And that cause to show diffusion and amplification effect in the meteorological disaster risk.2. Study proposed the definition of diffusion of meteorological disasters risk and studies it nature.The diffusion of meteorological disaster risk is defined as that, when a disaster-causing forces on hazard-affected bodies, due to the social and economic systemic and the relevance between hazard-affected bodies and other bodies, it is possible that the disaster would spread and derivative effect on other bodies. The main natures of the diffusion are universality, inevitability, non-linear and other properties. The main diffusion approaches are string diffusion, radiation diffusion, polymer diffusion, reverse diffusion feature and so on.3. Have studied to reveal the diffusion mechanism of meteorological disaster risk.We give a basic theory to analyze a diffusion of meteorological disaster risk, and a set including some basic ideas, some rules, some methods and some strategies to identify and control risk diffusions. Furthermore, we propose a method to switch a network physical model of risk diffusion into a mathematics model of risk diffusion. we suggest the technology methods to calculate the risk diffusion and expressing results of the diffusion. Thus revealing its diffusion mechanism.4. Have analyzed a practical case.Taking blizzard of North China in early winter 2009 as an example, we construct a risk diffusion network of the low temperature and blizzard disaster, systemically analyze what would be affected by the disaster, and give the scene expression of risk with prompt function. This system can produce weather service material, which is useful for government and relevant departments to make the decisions in dealing with meteorological disaster risk. It also demonstrates that, the suggested theory and methods in this thesis are rational.In short, based on the weather-related disaster risk diffusion mechanism of the theoretical study and take the meteorological disaster risk as an example, in this dissertation, we propose the concept of diffusion of meteorological disaster risk and study the diffusion mechanism of the meteorological disaster risk. Using the fuzzy mathematical analysis, information diffusion and other methods, It provides the analysis method and the calculation model for more reasonably and more comprehensively understanding. To more effectively deal with weather disasters, support of science and technology.