The Impact Of Climate Change On Crops Yield And Adaptation Strategies In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province Of Pakistan

Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change and extreme climatic conditions are threatening food security.Therefore,it is crucial to understand the effects of climate change on major food crops,perceptions and adaption strategies of smallholder farmers about climate change,and the factors hindering adaptation process of climate change.Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province significantly contributes in agriculture sector,where major proportion of income is generated through crop cultivation like,rice,wheat,maize,millet,sugarcane,tobacco,barley etc.Among these,wheat,rice and maize are normally cultivated as food crops.The total land area of this province is 7.4 million hectares while the cultivated area is 1.8 million hectares.For achieving the intentions of the study time series data on climate variables and crop yields were collected from different public sources.In addition,primary data from 400 smallholder farmers was also collected regarding perceptions and adaption strategies of smallholder farmers about climate change were analyzed and transcribed.Firstly,while exploring the relationship among yields of major food crops(wheat,rice,and maize),climate change(maximum temperature,minimum temperature,rainfall,relative humidity,sunshine),and technological advancement(fertilizer and agricultural machinery),an Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL)model was estimated using annual time series data(1989 to 2015).The co-integration,bound F-test results validated equilibrium for the long-run and short-run between yields of major food crops,temperature,rainfall,fertilizer and agricultural machinery.The long-run estimates indicated that coefficients of cropping area(-0.518)and temperature(-0.565)were significant but negatively influenced with wheat yield.However,for wheat yield,the coefficient of fertilizer usage(0.467)was positive and had a significant effect.For rice crop,the coefficient of rainfall(-0.282)was negative but statistically significant.Similarly,for maize crop,none of the selected variables were found significant.The results of the short-run relationship showed that the coefficient of area(1.696)was positively significant while the temperature(-1.025)showed statistically negative effect on wheat crop yield.The coefficient of rainfall(-0.092)showed negatively significant effect on yield of rice crop.Furthermore,feasible generalized least square and heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard error were employed to analyze the impact of climate change on major food crops(wheat,rice and maize).Both the coefficients of maximum temperature(-1.799)and rainfall(-0.120)had significant and negatively influenced the yield of wheat crop,while relative humidity(-0.111)was insignificant and negatively influenced wheat crop yield.The impact of the coefficient maximum temperature(3.920)was positive and significant for rice crop,while maximum temperature(0.117)and minimum temperature(0.546)were found positive but insignificant for maize crop.Whereas,the coefficient of relative humidity(-1.322)showed a negative and statistically significant contribution to the maize crop yield.It is concluded that climate change had adverse impacts on the yield of major food crops.Secondly,farmers in Mardan district observed more rise in temperature than Malakand and Swabi districts.Likewise,annual time series data of temperature obtained from various meteorological stations depicted a slight increase in temperature in the last few years.Further,the results indicate that in Malakand district a high proportion of farmers perceived no change in rainfall pattern as compared to Mardan and Swabi districts.Farmers' perceptions were important in understanding climate change phenomenon and devising a farm-level strategy to respond to it.The farm households were asked from which information sources they know about climate change for the first time.Majority of the farmers perceived climate change through experience and extension services and through their life experience.The key barriers which obstructed farmers from adaptation to climate change were,lack of access to information,lack of money and shortage of land.Some other important barriers to adaptation were lack of seed,shortage of labor,lack of water,insecure land tenure system and lack of access to market.Thirdly,farm-level adaptation strategies were explored in order to improve the action needed to cope with climate change showed that tree planting was considered as an important adaptation strategy because they believed deforestation the key reason for a change in climate.In addition,the results depict that the smallholder farmers employed other adaptation measures including early sowing,terracing,irrigation,water harvesting and crop diversification.However,some of them were dis-hearted and paying more attention to some other non-farm activities for income generation.Marginal effects of binary logistic regression indicate that farmer's perceptions were significantly affected by numerous factors such as assets and access to credit were significantly affecting tree planting.Likewise,for early sowing the access to credit was statistically significant and for irrigation the assets,access to credit and food aid were statistically significant.Furthermore,the results showed that for water harvesting the household size is statistically significant,for non-farm activities the assets and food aid were positively significant and for crop diversification the food price was statistically significant.Further it was revealed that climatic factors have a moderately negative impact on yields of major food crops.Almost 60 percent of the Pakistani population is living below the poverty line.Moreover,the population is growing rapidly and the country will face the problem of food security in the near future.The government needs to take firm action to overcome this problem and ensure sufficient food for the masses.The technical instruments and machinery needed to be enhanced since they played an important role in increasing yield of crops.Findings also recommend enhancing awareness about climate change,improving access to farm inputs and providing information on newly introduced technologies.For improving the farmer's wellbeing;adequate extension services,greater investment facilities and timely information about climate changes are required to support farmers to sustain their livelihoods.For coping and mitigating the adverse effects of climate change,the government needs to develop agricultural policies,improve irrigation facilities and introduce heat and drought?resistant high?yielding varieties to ensure food security in the country.However,more studies are required on the issue for in-depth understanding and bringing sustainable rural development in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan.This may support the rural development of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan,and also in other developing countries.