The Study Of Famers' Climate Change Adaptation Strategies In High-frigid Ecological Vulnerable Region

Climate change has a serious impact on the farmers' livelihood depending on the nature resource, especially in high-frigid ecological vulnerable region. Hence, it is important to search for effective strategies to adapt to climate change. The Gannan Plateau was selected as a case study, we analyzed the climatic trend based on the meteorological date during 1963~2013. Then, based on the investigation data, we analyzed the impact of climate change on famers? livelihood, and identified famers? climate change adaptation strategies from different types of famers. The multivariable linear regression model and the multivariate logistic model revealed famers? perception to climate change, farmers-household livelihood capital variables significantly determining the adaptation of climate change strategies. And we evaluated the effects of these strategies with a fuzzy integrative evaluate method, and determined the most effective adaptation strategy with a multi-criteria decisionmaking analysis. The results showed that:(1) In recent 50 years, the temperature showed an increasing trend, the rate of linear trend is 0.23?/10 a, and the precipitation showed a decreasing trend, the rate of linear trend is-5.21mm/10 a.(2) The diversification index of famers? adaptation strategy is 2.65 in Gannan Plateau. Besides, the farmers? human capital, natural capital, financial capital and farmers? severity perception, adaption effect perception, self-efficacy perception are positively correlated with the diversification index of adaption strategy. Besides, Most farmers of the Gannan Plateau combine different strategies for dealing with climate change, with 65.30% of the households being farmers and 30.21% employing the ?expansive and accommodating? strategy. The most important factor which influences the choices of climate change adaptation strategies is famers? human capital; famers? social capital and risk perception come second; the famers? financial capital and adaptation efficacy perception have the weakest influence.(3) The overall effect of the adaptation strategies is moderately positive, with an average effect index of 3.43. In different regions, The effect of adaptation strategies was highest in the ?farming area?(3.56), and worst in the ?pure pasturing area?(3.33). As for different livelihood of farmers, the effect of the off-farm households? adaptation strategies was the best, the effect of the agriculture- dependent households? and the off-farm dependent households? adaptation strategies is suboptimal, the pure agriculture households? is the worst.(4) The choice of the optimal strategies is different in different regions and different livelihood of famers, and adjusting the agricultural and animal husbandry structure was the most optimal strategy in the ?pure pasturing area? and ?semi-planting-pasturing area?. For the households of the ?farming area?, improving agriculture and animal husbandry facilities was the optimal strategy. Besides, the pure agriculture household, the agriculture dependent household, the off-farm dependent household, the off-farm household respectively select to adjust the agricultural and animal husbandry structure, improve agriculture and animal husbandry facilities, to develop non-agricultural industries, to utilize new technology of agriculture and animal husbandry as optimal strategies.