| Under the background of addressing climate change and controlling air pollution,speeding up the building of the clean and low-carbon modern energy system with the center on electricity is the central of deepening revolutionary strategy of energy production and consumption and the necessary route of achieving sustainable development.As the signpost of social and economic development,China’s electricity consumption presents the trend of rigid growth with the continuous deepening and development of industrialization and urbanization.The scale of electricity consumption of the whole society and per capita electricity consumption has been expanding,and the ratio of electricity consumption in terminal energy consumption has been rising.Moreover,China’s electrization level has been improved significantly.Despite this,the development of the green and low carbon transition in China is still suffering the problem of imbalance and insufficiency due to the influence of regional economic discrepancy and natural resource endowment difference.To solve this issue,the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly integrates developing clean energy into the achievement of "beautiful China",and the Fourth Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee put forward the new demand to realize modernisation of energy governance system and governance capability.Moreover,the 2020 government work report of each province has deployed the some work in the energy field.These actions are conducive to the formation of energy landscape where clean energy seizes a dominant position and electricity is the center of energy industry on energy consumption side.With China’s economy into the New Normal phase,the changes in the economic growth rate,the optimization of economic structure,and the shift of economic growth momentum have promoted electricity consumption to the New Normal phase.On the whole,the electricity supply-demand situation has gradually seen a change from tight to loose,but the problem of regional imbalance is particularly prominent.The trend of electricity consumption growth is generally consistent with the trend of economic development,but the periodic deviation phenomenon between them occurs from time to time.Moreover,there exists an imbalance between the growth rate of electricity consumption and econom ic development,and there is a tendency towards decoupling between electricity consumption and economic development.Furthermore,both the single factor efficiency of electricity-use and the total factor efficiency of electricity-use differ greatly in space and time due to the influence of regional heterogeneity.In addition,the uncertainty of the future development of China’s electricity consumption has increased.In view of these facts,this paper will carry out a multi-dimensional analysis of the characteristics of China’s Electricity Consumption from the perspective of electricity economics,and predict China’s electricity consumption in the future.The main contents and conclusions are shown as follows:(1)Investigate the dynamic relationship between electricity consumption and economic development,including coupling analysis of the gravity center,synergy analysis of the cycle and econometric test.The gravity center model with electricity consumption and GDP as the weight and with each province’s geographical center as the center coordinates is constructed to measure the gravity centers of electricity consumption and economic development,and a coupling analysis is made between them.The results showed that the gravity centers of electricity consumption and economic growth were not overlapped.Both of them move to low latitude,but their directions of movement in longitude were opposite.Using filtering method,the fluctuating cycles of electricity consumption and economic development are evaluated,and an analysis of their cycle synchronization is made.It was found that though electricity consumption and economic growth have similar cycle length,they exhibited countercyclical in the new phase of economic development.The Granger causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth is tested through both linear and nonlinear methods,and the dynamic interactive relationship between them is investigated using state space model.It was found that there was unidirectional causality of electricity consumption to economic growth,and the impact of electricity consumption on economic growth tended to be stable in the New Normal phase.(2)Study the reason why the annual growth rate of electricity consumption has began to decline,including decoupling analysis,structural break test and structural decomposition.Both of OECD decoupling factor and Tapio decoupling elasticity index are used to test the decoupling relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth.It was found that there tended to be a weak decoupling relationship between them in the new phase of economic development.The CUSUM(Cumulative Sum Test)is used to explore the existence of structural change for the time series of electricity consumption’s annual change rate.It was found that a distinct structural break in the growth rate of electricity consumption appeared around 2014.Based on the input-output analysis of electricity,structural decomposition model is adopted to study the the transformation of growth model of electricity consumption and the influencing factors of electricity consumption.It was found that the growth engine of electricity consumption has shifted from export-driven and investment-driven to consumption-driven.The pulling rate of each factor to electricity consumption was different in different periods.(3)Research on energy intensity differences across different provinces,including the evaluation of energy intensity differences,analysis of energy intensity’s influencing factors and source analysis of energy intensity differences.Theil index is applied to evaluate the degree of differences in provincial energy intensity.The results showed that the discrepancy of energy intensity across different provinces became stable in the New Normal phase.The penalized panel quantile regression with fixed effects is adopted to investigate the effects of determinants(e.g.economic development,population scale,energy structure,industry structure,the opening degree and technology progress)on energy intensity.The results showed that the effects of various determinants were obvious heterogeneous through the distribution of energy intensity.The regression-based Shapley decomposition model was built to disentangle the sources of energy intensity sources.The results showed that economic development,population scale,energy structure and the opening degree accelerated energy intensity differences,while industry structure and technology progress narrowed down energy intensity differences.(4)Investigate the temporal and spatial variation of the total factor efficiency of electricity-use,including the measurement of the total factor efficiency of electricity-use and its both static and dynamic evaluation,spatial agglomeration analysis and convergence analysis.GML(Global Malmquist-Luenberger)index is adopted to decompose the total factor efficiency of electricity-use evaluated by EBM(Epsilon Based Measure)model.It was found that the total factor efficiency of electricity-use in the New Normal phase toward stability,and the improvements of the total factor electricity productivity were caused by technology progress effect.ESDA(Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis)is made to investigate the spatial agglomeration characteristics of the total factor efficiency of electricity-use.It was found that there were obvious spatial agglomeration characteristics of the provinces’ total factor efficiency of electricity-use,and the degree of spatial agglomeration became stable in the New Normal phase.Convergence analysis model is constructed to judge whether the total factor efficiency of electricity-use is convergence or not.It was found that there was β absolute convergence for the total factor efficiency of electricity,but no a convergence.(5)Construct the LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning Model)that is suitable for the prediction of China’s electricity demand,and carry out scenario analysis.Based on the statistical features of China’s socioeconomic data and the actual situation of China’s electricity consumption,a LEAP model consisting of three modules(key assumption module,demand module and transformation module)is built to predict China’s electricity consumption,and three development scenarios,namely the baseline scenario,policy planning scenario and strengthening energy conservation scenario,are set.Among them,strengthening energy conservation scenario takes the characteristics of electricity consumption into account.Both their prediction results are compared.The results showed that the growth of electricity consumption was rapidest under the baseline scenario,the next under policy planning scenario,and the least under strengthening energy conservation scenario.China’s electricity consumption would be in the range of 9.834～12,064 MWh.With the interdisciplinary theories,this paper studies in depth the characteristics of China’s electricity consumption from four dimensions:the relationship between electricity consumption and economic development,the growth rate of electricity consumption,electricity intensity and the total factor efficiency of electricity-use.This study has important theoretical value and practical significance.More specifically,it could help grasp the changing trend of electricity consumption,address the imbalance of regional electricity consumption,improve the efficiency of electricity-use,and provide scientific and rational electricity consuming method.Among them,the systematic analysis of the dynamic relationship between electricity consumption and economic development could promote knowledge and understanding of electricity economics.The research on the low growth rate of China’s electricity consumption could help recognize the growth model of China’s electricity consumption,and its main mentality and research method could be applied to investigate the growth model of other resources consumption.The penalized panel quantile regression-based Shapley decomposition model could be used for exploring the influencing factors and the main source of differences for other inequality indexes.In addition,the future electricity demand could be rolling predicted using the established LEAP model,and its prediction results could provide a reference for the formulation of power planning.In the future research,the influence of the implementation of electric energy substitution strategy,the construction of ubiquitous electric internet of things as well as the opening of power-sold side on electricity consumption should be examined. |
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