| Low-carbon development is the requirement of the ecosystem on manufacturing industry under the pressure of global warming and the guarantee of the sustainable development.The research of this paper is based on the background of low-carbon,We took energy and co2 emission factors into consideration of the manufacturing efficiency system,environmental total factor productivity was used as the characterization of manufacturing low-carbon development index.It took 27 subdivided industries and 30 provinces(municipalities)of China’s manufacturing industry as the object of observation.Based on the data related to China’s manufacturing industry from 2001 to 2016,we systematically studied low-carbon development of China’s manufacturing industry by means of factor decomposition,panel data regression,data envelopment analysis and factor analysis.Review the development process of China’s manufacturing industry,put forward the development direction,analyze the energy conservation and emission reduction status of the manufacturing industry,and compare with relevant countries;Then the influences on the low-carbon development of manufacturing industry are discussed from three aspects of technology innovation,industrial structure optimization and spatial structure optimization,Further we grasp the influence degree and direction of key variables on low-carbon development.First of all,to deal with greenhouse gas emission and environmental problems,Britain,the United States,Germany and Japan developed countries all roads lead to Rome,seek low-carbon development,which provides experience for the development of China’s manufacturing industry in the future revelation: the contradiction between manufacturing development and environmental pollution have rules to follow,it can be effectively solved by energy structure optimization,technical innovation,industrial structure optimization and spatial structure optimization.Pollution isn’t the inevitable result of the industrial development.The "de-industrialization" to "re-industrialization" in developed countries provides a warning for the industrial structure adjustment in China’s manufacturing industry,if we blindly seeks for higher degree of industry,it will easily lead to industrial hollowing.Higher degree should be based on the reasonable structure.After the previous governance accumulation,European and American countries basically realized the economic and environmental decoupling,and the accelerated pace of reindustrialization which brought a test to China’s manufacturing industry.Second,while China has made brilliant achievements in manufacturing and become the world’s largest manufacturer,its energy efficiency and energy structure are far behind that of developed countries,and the pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction is increasing.By Pareto analysis,we found that energy conservation and emission reduction in manufacturing are concentrated in a few key industries and regions.Further factorization and panel data regression showed improvement of energy intensity has a certain inhibitory effect on energy conservation and emission reduction,but it can’t offset the positive boost by scale increasing in the short term.This requires the manufacturing sector to choose more high-quality energy and increase the use of high-quality energy such as electricity.Due to the rigidity of energy structure changes,in the short term,energy conservation and emissions reduction space is limited when relying solely on the optimization of energy structure.Then,based on the above analysis and logical thinking,we conduct an in-depth discussion from three aspects,namely technological innovation,industrial structure optimization and spatial structure optimization.The directional distance function and Luenberger index were used to measure the change of total factor productivity in China’s manufacturing industry,and the mechanism of action of key variables such as R&D,FDI,advanced industrial structure and industrial agglomeration on total factor productivity in the environment was constructed,and with empirical anaysis we obtains the following main conclusions:1.On average,Chinese manufacturing industry environmental total factor productivity grew annually by 0.97% from 2001 to 2016.Although Eastern China had high overall efficiency,among the various regions,it had the lowest growth in environmental total factor productivity.Under extensive-style development,improvements in energy and CO2 emissions efficiency in Central and Western China were not obvious,as the insufficient output of Central and Western China had restricted improvements in their output efficiency.Owing to diminishing marginal returns,a malfunctioning national innovation system and the low-end locking that has come into being under “technological dependence”,R&D,FDI and exports have restrained the growth of environmental total factor productivity in Eastern China.It is urgent for the Eastern manufacturing industry to break away from this low-end locking path dependence.Unlike in the Eastern region,exports have promoted environmental total factor productivity in Central and Western China where,under an optimal educational environment,R&D has had significant positive effects while export-oriented FDI has become an important impetus for low-carbon growth.2.The world has entered the post-crisis era of “subprime” and “European debt”,the backflow of manufacturing industry in developed countries has had a certain impact on industrial structure rationalization and upgrading in China manufacturing sector.Industrial structure upgrading(increase the proportion of high technology industry)significantly promote total environmental factor productivity growth in manufacturing,R&D strengthened its action on total environmental factor productivity and FDI shows a certain degree of inhibition;Industrial “uncleaning” direction(increase the proportion of energy-intensive industry)significantly inhibited the total environmental factor productivity growth,R&D strengthened its inhibition action on total environmental factor productivity,rebound effect is significant.While the technology spillover of FDI helps reduce energy-intensive industries’ negative effect on total environmental factor productivity growth.3.Technology-intensive manufacturing industries mainly concentrated in the China’s eastern area,and present a tendency of strengthening,but the concentration degree is low,low-tech labor-intensive industries mainly concentrated in the southern coastal,due to the congestion cost,some of them shift toward central and western.Low-tech capital-intensive industries with pollution characteristics mainly concentrated in the middle and west parts,gather strength weakened,agglomeration promoted environmental total factor productivity in manufacturing.Due to heterogeneity of industries,agglomeration of technology-intensive industries have the strongest promoting effect,low-tech labor-intensive industries are second,However,the agglomeration of low-tech capital intensive manufacturing industries significantly inhibit the growth of environmental total factor productivity,which confirms the "pollution shelter" hypothesis.Finally,based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the policy suggestions on the low-carbon development of manufacturing industry from three aspects: energy saving and emission reduction,technology innovation and structural optimization.In addition,in recent years,intelligent manufacturing become popular,the maturity of cloud computing,parallel processing and other technologies have provided tools for the establishment of artificial intelligence environment,which make the broad space for low-carbon development of manufacturing industry.So the influence of intelligent manufacturing on the low-carbon development of manufacturing industry will become a new topic in next stage of this paper. |
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