| With the global warming,China,as a big carbon emitter,plays an important role in achieving the global emission reduction target.As a huge carrier of carbon emissions,agricultural carbon emissions account for 17% of the total carbon emissions,so it is particularly important to reduce agricultural carbon emissions.Technological progress has created a new opportunity to achieve carbon emission reduction.This study focuses on the relationship between agricultural green technological progress and carbon emissions,mainly focusing on three core issues: First,can agricultural green technological progress reduce carbon emissions? How to influence carbon emissions.In particular,what are the differences in the action paths of agricultural green technology progress on carbon emission intensity from different types and regional perspectives? Secondly,what is the emission reduction effect of agricultural green technology progress? At present,a single perspective can no longer reflect the whole picture of carbon emission reduction of agricultural green technology progress,so it is necessary to deeply explore and analyze the carbon emission reduction effects of different types of agricultural green technology progress from the dimensions of time and space.Thirdly,how is the path of carbon emission reduction of agricultural green technology progress different in different scenarios? How to design a scientific and reasonable carbon emission reduction policy of agricultural green technology progress.This paper follows the logic main line of "influence mechanism-influence effect-scenario simulation",based on the theory of agricultural green technology progress,low-carbon agriculture theory,etc.The concept connotation and realization logic are defined and analyzed,the theoretical analysis framework of the impact of agricultural green technology progress on carbon emission intensity is constructed,and the impact of agricultural green technology progress on my country’s carbon emissions and its mechanism are analyzed.Then,from the theoretical level to the practical level,an empirical study is carried out on the progress of agricultural green technology and agricultural carbon emissions in my country.From the perspective of spatio-temporal and type heterogeneity,the basic measurement results are obtained based on EBM-GML and carbon measurement model,and the chain multi-mediation effect model is used to empirically test the impact mechanism of agricultural green technology progress on carbon emission intensity.The stochastic frontier model was used to analyze its influence.Finally,the BP neural network model is used to simulate and predict the dynamic change of carbon emission intensity under different scenarios of agricultural green technology progress.Through the above theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper draws the following main conclusions:(1)The progress of agricultural green technology has been promoted as a whole,and there is spatial correlation.There is a green bias in China’s technological progress.From the time dimension,the progress of China’s agricultural green technology and its different types are on the rise as a whole,the concentration is on the decline,and the regional differences are widening.On the spatial dimension,there is a significant positive correlation between agricultural green technology progress at the global level and its different types of spatial autocorrelation test results.High-high concentration areas are mainly concentrated in North China and East China,and low-low concentration areas are mainly concentrated in Northwest and Southwest China.From the perspective of types,there are some differences in the progress of agricultural green technology and its spatial and temporal development patterns of different types.Agricultural Technological Progress(AGTP)has a higher level of aggregation significance,and the aggregation areas are concentrated.All the influencing factors have a more significant impact on environmental friendly agricultural green technology progress(ACGTP)than resource-saving agricultural green technology progress(AEGTP).(2)The intensity of agricultural carbon emissions is declining,with spatial aggregation but no convergence.In terms of time dimension,the total agricultural carbon emissions in China showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2019,showing a changing trend of "fluctuating upward-slowly decreasing" at different times,and a wave of agricultural carbon emissions peaked around 2015 in the whole country,the central and western regions,the two major grain areas and the eastern region in 2007.In terms of space,the total agricultural carbon emissions in the central region are the highest,the total agricultural carbon emissions in the eastern and western regions are lower than the national average,and the total carbon emissions and intensity in major grain producing areas are higher than the national average.North China is the main gathering area of high carbon emissions,while South China is the gathering area of higher carbon emissions.From the perspective of convergence of agricultural carbon emission intensity,the absolute gap of agricultural carbon emission between regions gradually expanded after decreasing from 2000 to 2019,and there were no σ convergence,absolute βconvergence and conditional β convergence,that is,there was no difference reduction of agricultural carbon emission intensity,but there was a trend of difference expansion,and agricultural carbon emission intensity was "heterogeneous" among regions.This paper holds that the changing trend of carbon dioxide emissions in the three major economic zones is closely related to the regional development stage and economic growth mode,while the two major grain zones are related to agricultural production activities..(3)The effects of agricultural green technology progress and different types of technologies on carbon emission intensity are different.The impact of China’s agricultural green technology progress and different types of technologies on agricultural carbon emission intensity is significantly negative,and the direct effect is greater than the intermediary effect.The significant order of the intermediary variables is as follows: agricultural factor input structure(ES)path > agricultural factor input efficiency(EE)path > linkage path between agricultural factor input efficiency(EE)and agricultural factor input structure(ES).From the type point of view,the direct effect,intermediate effect and total effect of environment-friendly agricultural green technology(ACGTP)are significantly greater than those of resource-saving agricultural green technology(AEGTP).From the regional point of view,the direct effect is not completely significant and the regional order is: East > West > Central,major grain producing areas > non-major grain producing areas.As far as the intermediary effect is concerned,the intermediary effect in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions,and the intermediary effect in non-major grain producing areas is more significant than that in major grain producing areas.(4)The progress of agricultural green technology and the carbon emission reduction effects of different types of technologies have temporal and spatial heterogeneity.The progress of agricultural green technology and different types of technologies significantly reduce the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions,but the promotion rate of carbon emission reduction effect of the two types of green technologies is lower than the growth rate of green technologies.From the perspective of time and space,the carbon emission reduction efficiency of agricultural green technology progress is between 0.40-0.90,and it shows a rising trend of "slow-fast-slow" stages.The growth trend of carbon emission reduction effect of AGTP in different regions is basically the same.The regional order of carbon emission reduction effect of agricultural green technology progress(AGTP)in each region is: East > Central > West,major grain producing areas > non-major grain producing areas.From the type point of view,the environment-friendly agricultural green technology(ACGTP)has a higher carbon emission reduction effect than the resource-saving agricultural green technology(AEGTP).At the same time,the carbon emission reduction effects of different types of green technologies show an overall rising state of "maintaining stability-rapidly decreasing-steadily increasing".The development trend of carbon emission reduction effect of two types of green technologies in different regions is basically the same,and it is obviously different from that of AGTP.Among them,the regional order of carbon emission reduction effect of resource-saving agricultural green technology(AEGTP)is: central > eastern > western,major grain producing areas > non-major grain producing areas.The regional order of carbon emission reduction effect of environment-friendly agricultural green technology(ACGTP)is: East > Central >West,major grain producing areas > non-major grain producing areas.Secondly,there are regional differences of different types of green technologies under the three economic zones.The two types of green technologies in the east have the highest carbon emission reduction effect in the early stage,and the two types of green technologies in the middle stage have the highest carbon emission reduction effect.The carbon emission reduction trend of the two types of green technologies in the two major grain regions is consistent.(5)The predicted values of agricultural carbon emission intensity are all decreasing,which can achieve the goal of carbon intensity reduction.The carbon emission intensity is declining at different levels of agricultural technological progress,and the trend of the decline of carbon emission intensity is irreversible.At the same time,by 2030,the goal of "reducing the carbon dioxide emission intensity by 60-65% in 2030 compared with that in 2005" can be exceeded in both the high scenario and the benchmark scenario.From the perspective of time and space,the intensity of carbon emissions in various scenarios across the country and regions is declining with little difference.The descending order of carbon emission intensity in each region in the future is: western > eastern > central,major grain producing areas > non-major grain producing areas.The progress of agricultural green technology and the carbon emission intensity of different types of technologies in all regions of China are in a state of "rapid decline-slow decline".In terms of types,the carbon intensity of environment-friendly agricultural green technology(ACGTP)is higher than that of resource-saving agricultural green technology(AEGTP).At the same time,in the case of type bias of green technology,the carbon emission intensity of environment-friendly agricultural green technology(ACGTP)will be in a slow decline in 2024,while that of resource-saving agricultural green technology(AEGTP)will be in a slow decline in 2026.(6)There are significant differences among the influencing factors in the effect of agricultural green technology progress on carbon emission intensity.Among the influencing factors of spatial convergence of agricultural carbon emission intensity,urbanization level,farmers’ disposable income,agricultural price policy,financial support for agriculture policy,administrative environmental regulation,input efficiency of agricultural factors(EE)and agricultural production structure(ES)all significantly inhibit the increase of agricultural carbon emission intensity.Each region is basically consistent with the national level.In the spatial spillover effect of agricultural green technology progress and different types of technologies,the urbanization level,agricultural technicians and financial support policy(FIN)all have the promotion effect on agricultural green technology progress and different types of technologies in local and surrounding areas.Administrative environmental regulations and economic environmental regulations both inhibit the progress of agricultural green technology and different types of technologies in local and surrounding areas.Farmers’ disposable income can inhibit the local green technology progress or its different types of technologies,but it can promote the green technology progress or its different types of technologies in the surrounding areas.Finally,the emission reduction effects of different types of technologies of agricultural green technology progress are certain,but the influence factors on the carbon emission reduction effects of different types of technologies of agricultural green technology progress are uncertain.Among them,the level of urbanization and agricultural price policy will increase the obstacles of carbon emission reduction effect of different types of agricultural green technologies.Farmers’ disposable income and administrative environmental regulations will reduce the obstacles of carbon emission reduction effect of different types of agricultural green technologies.Agricultural technicians and economic environmental regulations have a slight difference in the barriers to the carbon emission reduction effect of different types of technologies for the progress of agricultural green technologies due to the bias of technology categories.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper further discusses the design principles and policy measures of carbon emission reduction of agricultural green technology progress policy and puts forward specific optimization suggestions: pay attention to the spatial correlation of agricultural green technology progress and optimize the economic environment of green technology growth;Pay attention to the regional differences of agricultural carbon emissions and formulate scientific and reasonable regional emission reduction policies;Identify different types of systematic agricultural green technology progress,and improve the effect of technology emission reduction by types;Moderate environmental regulation to promote the green transformation of agriculture;Taking environmental protection as the breakthrough point,establish a long-term financial investment mechanism for supporting agriculture.It is expected to provide scientific basis and theoretical support for the government in solving the dilemma of agricultural green technology progress and carbon emission reduction. |
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