| China’s economic development after the new millennium has attracted worldwide attention.With the rapid economic growth,oil demand is also increasing,and China has become the world’s largest oil importer.Due to the shortage of domestic oil and gas resources,the contribution of domestic oil production growth to China’s oil demand is limited,and the contradiction between oil supply and demand in China is becoming more and more prominent.Consequently energy security has become an important strategic issue in China’s economic development.General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed in the "Four Revolutions,One Cooperation" energy development strategy at the meeting of the Central Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs that energy supply should be guaranteed to achieve energy security under the condition of openness.The structure of international crude oil market has become more complex and the impact of trade policy uncertainty on international oil prices has become prominent.On one hand,after the shale revolution,US crude oil production rose sharply.The US lifted its 40-year ban on crude oil export at the end of 2015 and became an important oil supplier in the international crude oil market.The US oil and gas trade policy has a significant impact on the fluctuations of international oil prices.On the other hand,global policy uncertainties and fluctuations have increased significantly after the financial crisis,and friction between major countries has intensified.In recent years,"Brexit" and "China-us trade war" have had a significant impact on international oil prices.Geopolitical conflicts often occur in the international crude oil market.After the new millennium,the War in Iraq,Libya and Syria had a huge impact on the international crude oil trade.The Iranian nuclear crisis and the Crimea incident had a great impact on the crude oil exports of Iran and Russia.In today’s world where trade protectionism is rising and trade friction in crude oil market is prominent,it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and international oil price for reducing the cost and increasing the efficiency of China’s crude oil import and ensuring China’s energy security.This paper studies the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and international oil price,tries to analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on oil price return and the spillover effect on oil price volatility,and explores the impact of trade policy uncertainty on China’s GDP,providing empirical reference for China’s crude oil trade.The research of this paper has some innovations in the following aspects.First,the traditional academic research focused on the crude oil market supply and demand factors influence on oil prices,but after financial crisis the international crude oil market structure is undergoing profound changes,the impact is more and more obvious in oil for trade policy uncertainty.This article first enrolls the trade policy uncertainty into the international crude oil price research framework,providing new empirical basis for academic research in world oil prices.Second,the research on trade policy uncertainty is still in the development stage,and the current research mainly focuses on macroeconomic trade policy uncertainty.This paper uses Global Trade Alert database to construct the Trade policy uncertainty of oil and gas industry,which provides a new research perspective for the analysis of trade policy uncertainty.Thirdly,although some scholars have analyzed the financial factors of international crude oil price fluctuations,the behavioral financial impact on the international crude oil market remains to be studied.In particular,in the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak,international oil prices plunged and U.S.crude oil futures fell to minus 37 dollars per barrel,which is difficult to be explained solely by supply and demand factors.This paper examines the mechanism by which trade policy uncertainty affects the market sentiment of traders and explores the impact of financial factors of traders in the crude oil market on international oil prices.As for the analysis of the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and oil price,this paper starts from the "Sino-US trade war" and studies the volatility of oil price in the period of high trade policy uncertainty.Then,based on the Global Trade Alert database,this paper constructs the Trade policy uncertainty index,analyzes the impact of oil and gas Trade policy uncertainty on international oil prices,and further explores the volatility spillover effect of oil and gas trade policy uncertainty on oil prices.Finally,this paper analyzes the impact of trade policy uncertainty on China’s economy.The specific content is summarized as follows:The first chapter is the introduction,which summarizes the research content,research ideas and research methods of this paper,expounds the research background and significance of this paper,and proposes the innovation and shortcomings of this paper.The second chapter is a literature review,combing the literature of international oil price research,summarizing the measurement methods of trade policy uncertainty,and analyzing the necessity of trade policy uncertainty and international oil price research.Traditionally,the analysis of international crude oil price is mainly based on market fundamentals,studying the impact of supply and demand factors on international oil price.In academic studies on oil prices,there are differences on the price determinants of supply and demand,among which Hamilton,the representative of the supply school in the crude oil market,believes that the supply shock in the crude oil market is the main determinant of oil prices.Kilian is a representative of the oil market demand school,who believe that demand shock is the most important factor affecting oil prices,while international economic fluctuations are the most critical demand factor.On this basis,some scholars gradually pay attention to the influence of macroeconomic factors on international crude oil price.In recent years,the trade frictions of big countries are rising,and the uncertainty of trade policy has aroused widespread concern in the academic circle.At present,academic studies mainly analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on macro economy.However,during the period of Brexit and sino-US trade disputes,international crude oil price fluctuated greatly,and no scholars have explored the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and international oil price.This paper further summarizes the current quantitative methods of trade policy uncertainty and analyzes the defects and deficiencies of the current measurement methods.Chapter three studies the mechanism of the impact of trade policy uncertainty on oil prices.First,in the crude oil carrying cost model,when the uncertainty of trade policy in the crude oil market increases,the crude oil trading enterprises will have a greater divergence of market views,which will affect the short-term interest rate in the economy and thus cause the risk premium of the oil price.Second,the abnormal fluctuation of international crude oil price includes risk premium factor and irrational factor of market sentiment.The volatility of the fundamentals of the crude oil market will generate risk premium,but there is information asymmetry in the crude oil market,traders’ market judgment deviates from the real market situation,traders’ trading behavior based on irrational judgment leads to the impact of market sentiment on the oil price.Thirdly,when trade policy uncertainty rises,enterprises will delay investment to reduce risks due to the actual option effect of investment,which will cause macroeconomic fluctuations.International crude oil demand is closely related to macroeconomic changes,so trade policy uncertainty has an impact on international oil prices through the actual option mechanism.Fourth,many investors diversify risks by holding different financial assets.When the uncertainty of trade policy rises,the price of different assets fluctuates differently.Investors may transfer funds between precious metals such as crude oil and gold to improve economic benefits.Chapter four reviews the changes of international oil prices after the new millennium,and investigates the trade policies of international crude oil market after the new millennium,in order to support the empirical analysis of trade policy uncertainty and oil prices.First,the uncertainty of crude oil export policy changed after the financial crisis,during which the international crude oil price changed significantly.From 2011 to 2012,the geopolitical crises in Libya and Iran made the crude oil trade policies of these countries become unclear.In 2014,western countries imposed sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry during the Crimea incident,which made Russia’s crude oil export face great uncertainty,and the international crude oil price was supported and fluctuated at a high level.The lifting of the US crude oil export ban in2015 meant a significant change in the US crude oil export policy,after which international oil prices showed a downward trend for a period of time.Second,trade frictions between major countries have caused significant changes in international crude oil prices.Britain’s referendum to leave the European Union reflects the contradiction between the development of the UK and the European continent.Brexit not only has an impact on the macro economy,but also has a huge impact on the international crude oil market.The Trade war between China and the United States is a concentrated manifestation of the trade disputes between major countries in recent years.During the trade friction,the United States and China imposed large-scale trade sanctions on each other,and the international crude oil market fluctuated greatly.Third,the global economy has been hit hard by the financial crisis and COVID-19,and trade policies are highly uncertain.During the financial crisis,oil prices fell sharply and then gradually rose.During COVID-19,international crude oil prices showed a similar trend.Chapter five analyzes the changes of international oil prices during the sino-US trade war.The "Trade war between China and the United States" is a concentrated manifestation of the frictions between the interests of major countries.During this period,uncertainties in global trade policy have risen sharply.China is already the largest importer of crude oil,and the large fluctuation of international oil price during sino-US trade friction has a great impact on China’s crude oil import cost.The sino-US trade friction events selected in this paper are based on the data of "Sino-US Trade Dispute Events" from Tsinghua University’s Wudaokou School of Finance.The sinoUS trade friction events are further divided into moderating and intensifying events,so as to comprehensively analyze the impact of Sino-US trade disputes on international oil prices.The analysis results of EGARCH model show that intensified trade events reduce oil price returns,while moderating trade events have a positive impact on oil price returns.The research results of oil price regression through event analysis show that the impact of intensified trade events on oil price has the feature of mean recovery,and the oil price return decreases most on the first day but recovers to the original level on the third day,but moderating trade events have no significant dynamic impact on oil price.In addition,from the case of intensified trade friction events,oil price returns gradually decreased from 0.5% to-0.4% two days before the occurrence of trade friction events.Finally,the mechanism test of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on oil prices shows that market sentiment is the mechanism of sino-US trade friction on oil prices.Chapter six expands the relationship between Sino-US trade frictions and oil prices from special to general,and studies the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and oil prices in the oil and gas industry.Based on the Glabal Trade Alert database,this chapter constructs the Trade policy uncertainty index in the oil and gas industry.The Trade policy uncertainty in the oil and gas industry has a significant impact on the oil price.The regression results show that a unit of negative Trade policy uncertainty increases the oil price return rate by 0.4 percentage points.An increase in positive trade policy uncertainty adds 0.9 percentage points to oil yields.The FIGARCH model of the impact of trade policy uncertainty on oil prices in the oil and gas industry is significant in the long memory coefficient,indicating that there is a lag in investors’ response to new market information,that is,when new market information becomes available,it is not immediately reflected in the market price.In addition,the impact of trade policy uncertainty on oil prices in the oil and gas industry is heterogeneous.The impacts of trade policy uncertainties corresponding to different trade policy instruments on oil price returns are different,and the policy uncertainties related to export tariffs,localization policies,import and export bans and export licenses in oil and gas industry have a negative impact on oil price returns.Trade policy uncertainties related to import and export quotas,foreign direct investment,oil and gas subsidies and import promotion have a positive impact on oil price returns.In the oil and gas industry,the trade policy uncertainty of oil and gas producers and consumers has different impacts on oil prices.There is no significant difference in the impact of the trade policy uncertainty of oil and gas producers or consumers,and the impact of the trade policy uncertainty of oil and gas of different affected entities has different impacts on oil prices.Market trading volume contributes to the prediction of oil price.The study of oil price trading volume in this paper shows that the increase of positive and negative trade policy uncertainty and the increase of possible negative trade policy uncertainty in the oil and gas industry both increase market trading volume.Finally,the mechanism analysis shows that oil and gas trade policy uncertainty affects oil prices through market sentiment.Based on the trade policy uncertainty index in the oil and gas industry,the sixth chapter further explores the impact of trade policy uncertainty in the oil and gas industry on China’s GDP.The analysis shows that in the short and medium term,the negative trade policy uncertainty has a negative impact on China’s GDP,and in the long term,the negative trade policy uncertainty has no significant impact on China’s GDP.In addition,positive trade policy uncertainty and possible negative trade policy uncertainty have no significant impact on oil prices in the short,medium and long term.Further nonlinear regression results show that the rise of negative trade policy uncertainty has a negative impact on China’s GDP in the short and medium term,with a significant impact of 0.3 percentage points.In the long run negative trade policy uncertainty increases the impact on China’s GDP is positive,but not significant.In addition,the decline of negative trade policy uncertainty does not have a significant impact on China’s GDP in the short term,and has a negative impact on China’s GDP in the medium and long term,but the impact is small in the long term.In terms of the positive trade policy uncertainty,the rise or decline of the positive trade policy uncertainty has no significant impact on China’s GDP in the short,medium and long term.The regression results of possible negative trade policy uncertainty and positive oil and gas trade policy uncertainty are similar,and the impact on GDP is not significant.Chapter seven studies the spillover effects of trade policy uncertainties of major economies on oil prices.The results of continuous wavelet analysis show that there is a significant correlation between the trade policy uncertainty of major economies in the crude oil market and the international oil price in the period of 4 months or less.The impact was concentrated during the financial crisis of 2008-2009,the Crimea incident of 2014,the SINO-US trade war of 2018-2019,and COVID-19 in 2020.In addition,volatility spillover analysis shows that the net volatility spillover effect of oil prices before COVID-19 was negative,mainly due to the impact of trade policy uncertainty of major economies in the oil market on oil prices.However,after the outbreak of COVID-19,the net volatility spillover effect of oil prices turned positive,which was reflected in the adjustment of oil and gas trade policies by major economies in the oil market due to the abnormal volatility of oil prices,which reflected the panic in the market at the early stage of the outbreak of COVID-19 and had a big impact on the international oil market.Finally,the analysis of net volatility spillovers between variables shows that the us,China and Germany trade policy uncertainties have a negative spillover effect on oil prices,while the UK and Japan trade policy uncertainties have a positive spillover effect on oil prices.Volatility spillovers of Opec and Countries’ trade policy uncertainties on oil prices changed before and after THE COVID-19 pandemic,and the net volatility spillover effect was negative before the COVID-19 pandemic,reflecting that it was mainly the changes in oil prices that led oil producers to adjust their oil and gas trade policies during this period,but the net volatility spillover effect was positive after the COVID-19 outbreak.This indicates that the drastic adjustment of crude oil trade policies by OPEC plus countries after the outbreak of the epidemic has a net impact on international oil prices.This paper puts forward policy suggestions in the following aspects.First,in recent years,the trade policy of oil and gas industry is highly uncertain,and the risk of crude oil trade is great.Increasing domestic oil and gas resources development is an important way to improve national energy security.We should strengthen the investment in oil and gas development technology,learn from the advanced experience of the SHALE revolution in the United States,reduce the cost of oil development,expand the application of artificial intelligence technology in the oil field,and promote the technological progress of oil exploitation.The government should give necessary tax and subsidy support to petroleum development enterprises,especially to encourage petroleum exploration and development research and development,so as to promote Chinese enterprises to walk out of an efficient petroleum exploration and development road that conforms to China’s characteristics.In addition,we should increase the exploration and development of new oil fields,fully exploit land and offshore oil and gas resources,and ensure the stable supply of old oil fields.Second,trade policy uncertainties in the oil and gas industry have a significant impact on international oil prices.Domestic oil storage facilities should be improved to improve the flexible adjustment of oil supply.Third,there are differences in the foreign investment trade policies of oil and gas producing countries around the world.China’s crude oil demand is highly dependent on foreign countries.Under the background that domestic oil production cannot increase rapidly,it should consider investing in overseas oil and gas resources to increase upstream supply resources.To avoid the threat to China’s energy security caused by drastic fluctuations in international oil prices and supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts.On the one hand,we should grasp favorable investment opportunities.The international crude oil market shows strong periodicity,so we should seize the low point of the market to invest and improve the investment income.On the other hand,we should pay attention to the political environment and geopolitical situation of overseas investment,promote communication and cooperation with the governments of resource countries,and provide good guarantee for overseas oil and gas investment.Fourth,use hedging to lock forward prices and reduce the risk of price fluctuations.Fifth,there are differences in the political and economic situations of various countries in the world,with different trade policy uncertainties,differences in the resource reliability of oil-producing countries,imbalance in global oil resource endowment,the need to balance the oil demand of various countries through trade,and the occurrence of international political emergencies affecting the supply of crude oil.The diversification of oil import resources should be promoted to prevent the impact of supply crisis of single import source on China’s crude oil trade security. |
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