The Impact Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On China’s Macro-economy ——An Analysis Based On CGE Model

In recent years,China’s oil consumption has continued to increase,accounting for a significant proportion of the energy consumption structure,and mainly from imports.China’s dependence on imported oil is also increasing,reaching more than 70%.As a fundamental element in the market,international oil prices constantly provide signals for producers and consumers,Changes in oil prices will affect the production costs of upstream and downstream industries,further cause the market price fluctuation of products,and ultimately affect macroeconomic variables such as sectoral output,household consumption and investment scale.The lack of international oil pricing power leads to an economy that is left to passively accept the impact of oil price fluctuations.At this stage,China is in the late stage of industrialization.In order to maintain high-quality economic transformation and development,stable energy factor guarantee is a necessary condition.In summary,it is very necessary to analyze the impact of oil price fluctuations on China’s macro-economy.Based on the data in the 2018 Input-Output Table,the China Fiscal Yearbook,the China Tax Yearbook,and the China Energy Statistics Yearbook,in this paper,the macro SAM table for 2018 and the micro SAM table with 20 sectors are compiled by separating the oil production sectors according to the SAM theory and the research theme.Based on the SAM tables,the CGE model is established according to the computable general equilibrium theory.The four modules of production,revenue expenditure,trade and equilibrium are set in the model.The existing research results are referred to set specific function parameters to further improve the model.Finally,six scenarios are set up by observing the trend of WTI annual data and the corresponding program are written by applying GAMS software to analyze the impact of international oil price fluctuations on China’s macroeconomic variables.The results show that,in general oil price fluctuations of different magnitudes have different impact strengths on the same sector,and the fluctuation range is directly proportional to the strength of the resulting shocks.The impact of the same oil price fluctuations on different sectors is also different,which are mainly reflected in the industrial chains,the more a sector is linked to the oil sector,the stronger the shock it will receive.From different perspectives,in terms of commodity prices,an increase in oil price will cause commodity prices to rise,and commodity prices will decrease with the decline in oil prices.In particular,the oil processing industry,as the direct downstream sector of the oil production industry,its commodity prices are the most sensitive to oil price fluctuations.Regarding sectoral output,rising oil prices increased output across sectors and vice versa.Among them,the oil production industry itself is most affected by the fluctuation of oil price.In respect of residents’ consumption,the increase in oil prices makes residents consume less products,while the decrease in oil prices shows an upward trend in consumption,with the largest change in residents’ consumption of refined oil products.In the field of investment,the rise of oil price will lead to the reduction of investment scale,while the decline of oil price will expand the investment scale,and the investment scale of other manufacturing industries changes the most strongly.