Cataclysm Mechanism And Risk Quantification Of Coastal Industrial Cluster’s Accidents Triggered By Typhoon-induced Multiple Disasters

In the context of global warming and sea-level rise,typhoons and their induced multiple disasters are gradually evolving into important threats to coastal infrastructure,energy facilities,and lifeline systems.Especially for coastal industrial areas,typhooninduced floods,strong winds,and heavy rainfall will further trigger industrial accidents,non-linearly amplify the consequences of accidents,and then bring unprecedented disasters to life,property,and the natural environment.At present,the research on typhoon triggering technical disasters(belonging to the category of Natech events)at home and abroad is still in its infancy,the coupling mechanism between primary disasters and secondary-derived multiple hazards is not yet clear,the mechanism of multi-hazard triggering industrial equipment catastrophes is unclear,the disaster chain effect is difficult to quantify,and there is a lack of systematic risk assessment framework to include the mutual transformation between various hazards.Accordingly,aiming at the Natech events triggered by the typhoons,this thesis develops a numerical synthesis model of typhoon-induced multi-hazard scenarios to reveal the coupling pattern.between floods,strong winds,and heavy rainfall.On the basis of the synthesized data,the critical conditions of multiple hazards triggering the catastrophes of industrial accidents are further explored,and a network-based model is constructed to systematically elaborate the mutual transformation mechanism between various hazards.Finally,this thesis develops a quantitative risk assessment method for typhoon-triggered Natech events based on the coupling patterns of natural disasters,the mechanism of Natech events,the evolution and escalation model of technological disasters,and the disaster chain effect of Natech events.The research content and results of the work are as follows:(1)This work synthesizes the multi-hazard scenarios induced by typhoons and constructs the coupling pattern of the multi-hazard system.By coupling the statistical dynamic typhoon model and the ADICRC storm surge model,a numerical synthesis model of global-scale tropical cyclones and their induced multi-hazards is developed.This model integrates typhoon genesis and secondary-derived disaster prediction,and provides a database with high statistical consistency for the study of typhoon-induced Natech events;Statistical analysis of synthetic multi-hazard scenarios shows that there is a high degree of nonlinear dependence among typhoon-induced multi-hazards.The Vine copula can accurately capture the joint distribution of multi-hazard systems,providing theoretical support for the frequency and intensity calculations of typhoon-induced multi-hazards.(2)This work quantifies the multi-hazard risk of industrial equipment and designs typhoon-induced multi-hazard events.By deriving the mechanical equilibrium and the control equations of limit equilibrium state of industrial equipment under windflood composite loads,the critical conditions for multi-hazards to trigger industrial cataclysmic are revealed;At the same time,considering the joint distribution of multihazards and the multi-hazard fragility of industrial equipment,a probabilistic risk model for typhoon-triggered failures of industrial equipment is developed,which provides a probability basis for the risk quantification of Natech events;Additionally,a risk-driven design framework of multi-hazard event is established to provide a reliable reference index of multi-hazard joint intensity for the disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal industrial areas.(3)This work builds an evolution and escalation model for typhoon-triggered industrial accidents.In the front end of the traditional Natech event assessment framework,the n atural disaster scenario module is expanded to systematically describe the mutual transformation and energy transfer between hazards in various links of typhoontriggered industrial cascade accidents(domino effect).Natech-related domino accident network model is further established,and the network learning technology is used to reveal the evolution path and escalation mode of the initial accident within the industrial cluster;On this basis,network-based safety analysis provides strong support for cutting off accident propagation and escalation.(4)This work assesses the disaster chain effect of the typhoon-induced landslideindustrial accident.The chain risk of typhoon-derived landslide-triggered industrial accidents is decomposed into three sub-modules:slope instability,landslide-triggered industrial accidents,and active safety measures.The hybrid Bayesian network is used to connect the risk factors in each link,realizing the step-by-step spread of the chain risk of Natechs.By run ning a Bayesian network model,it is found that rainfall,shallow soil depth,slope angle,and safe distance of the plants are the key factors in the risk of a disaster chain.In addition,Bayesian-based reverse inference optimizes the design parameters of the drainage system for the peripheral slope of the industrial cluster.