Research On Online Assessment And Situation Deduction Method For Multi-factor Coupling Risk Of Coal Mine Gas Explosion

Coal mine gas explosion accident is one of the major disasters in mines,with strong suddenness,wide spread,large destructive force and large number of casualties.Aiming at the singleness of the current gas explosion accident early warning method,the weak links in the rapid determination and quantitative expression of multi-factor coupling risks in the accident evolution process,this paper adopted comprehensive methods such as case analysis,on-site investigation,theoretical research,simulation and system development,a gas explosion multifactor coupling risk grading measurement method was proposed.The gas explosion coupling risk situation deduction system was constructed.It realizes the online rapid assessment and prediction of gas explosion coupling risk based on monitoring,inspection and other multi-source information fusion,which is of great significance for the prevention and control of gas exp losion accidents.Through the statistics of 125 large and above coal mine gas explosion accidents that occurred in China from 2010 to 2020.the analysis was carried out from the aspects of the time,region,place and cause of the accident.According to the grade characteristics,time-space law,fractal time sequence characteristics of gas explosion accidents,and the causes of gas accumulation and detonation ignition source,the characteristics and statistical laws of gas explosion accident were obtained.In addition,the causes of gas explosion accidents were analyzed in depth from the micro,meso and macro levels based on the accident-causing theory.According to the research of domestic and foreign scholars on precursor information,combined with the function introduction of knowledge base,this paper defined the concept of precursor information and precursor information knowledge base.Based on the cause analysis of gas explosion accidents,the grounded theory was used to code and extract the precursor information of gas explosion accidents.And combine relevant laws,regulations and standards on gas,ventilation and fire source management regulations.By analyzing,sorting and summarizing,a gas explosion accident precursor information knowledge base was constructed from three aspects:precursor information,relevant regulations and basis.By analyzing the ways and types of gas explosion risk coupling,based on the precursor information knowledge base,using data mining technology and complex network principles,the association rules leading to gas explosion accidents were explored from five dimensions.According to the rule support and confidence,the strong association rules between the combination of precursor information and the gas explosion accident were clarified,and the coupling correlation of each precursor information in the strong association rules was determined by lift,and an evolutionary path of coal mine gas explosion based on strong association rules was constructed.Based on the risk acceptability criterion,combined with the precursor information system and the evolution path of the gas explosion accident,the risk matrix method was used to calculate the risk value of the single factor risk in the evolution process,and the single factor risk level was determined.Then,the qualitative indicators in the single factor are quantified,the quantitative indicators were nondimensionalized,and G1 method and the entropy weight method were used to weight each indicator.Finally,by calculating the coupling degree of each risk indicator,according to the single factor risk value,weight coefficient and risk coupling degree,a multi-factor coupling risk grading measurement method was proposed.Based on the principle of combining qualitative and quantitative,according to the gas explosion evolution path,the coupling risk grading measurement method and the modeling principle of system dynamics,a SD-based gas explosion coupling risk deduction model was constructed.The Vensim software was used to analyze the gas explosion coupling risk.The evolution model was simulated to obtain the evolution trend of the system gas explosion risk and the risk change trend of the index variables.By adjusting the relevant parameters of the system operation,the applicability and feasibility of the model were tested.Through the previous theoretical analysis and simulation,based on the precursor information,evolution path and coupling measurement of gas explosion accident,the JDK1.9+platform was used to develop the gas explosion coupling risk situation deduction system.The results of the previous theoretical analysis are transformed according to different levels of information,and through the capture and acquisition of multi-source data,the information is processed automatically based on different functions.Finally,the online assessment and situation deduction of gas explosion coupling risk are realized,and timely countermeasures are taken to prevent the occurrence of gas explosion accidents according to the deduction and early warning.Aiming at the weak links in the measurement and control of coal mine gas explosion coupling risk,this paper was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51974238),the grounded theory,precursor information theory,risk coupling theory,data mining technology,complex network and system dynamics methods and other interdisciplinary theories were used to construct and test the gas explosion coupling risk situation deduction system.The research results play an important role in the advanced control and prediction of coal mine gas explosion coupling risk,provide theoretical and technical support for the realization of online rapid determination of gas explosion risk.High academic research value and promotion and application prospects.