Carbon Emission Intensity And Its Attribution Of Industrial Energy Consumption In China

Since the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),the CPC Central Committee and The State Council have continued to focus on industrial carbon emission reduction,and put forward the carbon emission reduction targets of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral".At present,the industrial green reform and the development process of "dual carbon" goals are important issues concerning the green and sustainable development of China’s economy and society.The traditional industrial development mode is constrained by the environmental threshold and resource carrying capacity,and is facing the bottleneck of low-carbon sustainable development.The green industrial development in the new era has given the new mission of low-carbon industrial development.After four decades of rapid economic development,China’s greenhouse gas emissions are also increasing rapidly.Due to the impact of China’s resource endowment "rich in coal and little in oil",China’s industrial energy consumption structure is still dominated by coal and other fossil fuels,and carbon emissions will peak around 2030.As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases,China is under greater pressure to reduce carbon emissions globally.As a firm supporter and defender of the Kyoto Protocol,China has been committed to improving its carbon emission reduction capacity for a long time.With the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015,China has pledged to reduce carbon emission per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% by 2030 compared with 2005,and to significantly reduce the proportion of fossil energy consumption.Carbon emissions reduction targets have been identified,how to achieve "double carbon" is the key to measure China’s industrial carbon emissions and springback effect strength,how to measure the industrial energy consumption carbon emissions factor allocation efficiency,how to determine the industrial carbon reduction key influencing factors and the space-time distribution,how to realize the industrial energy consumption carbon emissions and decoupling relationship between regional economic development,Building a carbon emission reduction system for China’s industrial energy consumption.The industrial energy consumption and production data of 31 provinces in China from2015 to 2019 were collated,and carbon emission intensity and carbon emission rebound effect were calculated using LMDI method(decomposition analysis method)and Arcgis,and the spatial differences were compared and analyzed.The results showed that: China’s energy consumption carbon emission intensity has a spatial imbalance law,which is related to the energy resource endowment of each province in China.It basically shows a situation of more in the north and less in the south,and decreases from the northwest inland to the southeast coastal areas.The carbon emission intensity of coal shows the characteristics of more in the north and less in the south,decreasing from the northeast to the southwest,and its distribution characteristics are consistent with China’s resource endowment.Oil carbon intensity presented by decreasing the basic trend of the coastal provinces and cities to inland area,the spatial distribution of natural gas carbon intensity trend and regional social and economic development and population agglomeration and resources mining reserves of oil and gas distribution is consistent,the coastal regional economic development level is relatively high,population is relatively concentrated,gas consumption is enormous.From2010 to 2019,the rebound effect of China’s energy consumption showed a decreasing trend year by year.In 2010,the national average rebound effect of carbon emissions was 0.734,and in 2019,the rebound effect of China’s industrial carbon emissions decreased to about 0.5.The rebound effect of industrial energy consumption carbon emissions has been in a state of "backfire effect".This strong dependence on resources strongly stimulates the second rebound of energy consumption and intensifies the regional "resource curse" phenomenon.Malmquist TOTAL factor Production Index DEA model and cost-DEA model were used to calculate the allocation efficiency of rebound factors of industrial carbon emissions,and the results showed that:(1)industrial energy resources market and carbon intensity space imbalance problems,presents the present situation of the north south more less,the inland northwest to the southeast coastal decline trend,but the market consumption,technology,capital investment is on the contrary,the market segmentation of distortions cause industrial enterprise production factors cannot normal response industrial products market price fluctuation signal.(2)The average value of technical efficiency is 0.8,and is in a state of increasing change year by year.The average value of cost efficiency is 0.6,and the average value of allocative efficiency is 0.8.The change of cost efficiency and allocative efficiency is relatively stable.It is necessary to pay attention to the input of environmental and resource costs,strictly control the consumption of energy and resources,reduce the scale reasonably,and overcome the defect of input redundancy,so as to achieve a relatively stable balance between input and output.The regression results show that industrial scale,industrial investment and pollution control input have a significant positive impact on the allocative efficiency of industrial carbon emission market factors,while technology input and energy market price have a significant negative impact on the allocative efficiency of market factors.It is necessary to strengthen the role of industrial capital input and industrial energy conservation and emission reduction management input in improving the allocation efficiency of factor market in order to achieve high-quality emission reduction targets.Although technological progress will bring the industry to promote the efficiency of energy consumption,but there may be "jevons paradox" phenomenon,as a result of the existence of scale effect,to promote the efficiency of industrial energy consumption reduces the effective cost of industrial production,is driving the industrial production of chasing maximum benefit and expanding industrial energy consumption behavior,namely industrial secondary energy consumption "rebound" phenomenon,Technology innovation cannot accomplish the mission of industrial carbon emissions alone,within the framework of porter hypothesis,but need to be supplemented by strict design appropriate flexible environmental regulation,not only can stimulate the enterprise technology innovation,and some even completely offset enterprises follow the costs of environmental regulation required to make the enterprise more competitive in the market,more can stimulate the enterprise technology innovation vitality,energy saving and emission reduction The new relationship between environmental regulation,technological innovation and carbon emission rebound effect is determined.The nonlinear impact of technological innovation and policy regulation on industrial carbon emission reduction is studied by threshold regression and intermediary variable regression analysis.The results show that:(1)technological progress and industrial energy consumption carbon emissions rebound effect,and "U" type nonlinear relationship between technological progress effect exist single threshold method,below the threshold value,the technological progress of industrial energy consumption carbon emissions springback inhibition effect,more than threshold,the technological progress of industrial energy consumption carbon emissions springback has a promoting effect;(2)The scale of industrial enterprises plays a mediating role in the rebound effect of technological progress on carbon emissions from industrial energy consumption.Technological progress influences the rebound effect of carbon emissions from energy consumption by promoting the expansion of industrial scale.(3)"Porter hypothesis" exists widely in China’s industrial production,and different types of environmental regulations have a "N" shape fluctuation effect on the rebound effect of industrial carbon emissions;(4)of industrial technology innovation as the intermediary variable,environmental regulation through the mediation effect of technological innovation of industrial carbon rebound effect and its effect on the threshold,environmental regulation brings industrial technological progress,technological advances began to offset compensation and gain effect upfront costs and expenses,reduce industrial carbon emissions,but can’t completely counteract adverse factors such as cost and expense,China’s industrial environmental regulation carbon emission reduction is in the state of "Porter hypothesis".(5)in the presence of different intensity of policy regulation has different performance,incentive model compared with the command model policy regulation has stronger "porter hypothesis",are easier to implement technology to offset the cost of compensation and gain,but the design of flexible appropriate environmental regulation strictly,to encourage technological innovation,and some even completely offset enterprises follow the costs of environmental regulation So that enterprises have more competitive advantages in the market,more conducive to curb the rebound effect of carbon emissions.The spatial-temporal difference of impacts and the spatial aggregation and spillover of industrial carbon emission intensity were analyzed by using the spatial Durbin model(SDM),spatial error model(SEM)and spatial lag model(SAR)in the panel spatial econometric model and Moran test.The results show:(1)From 2010 to 2019,the rebound effect of carbon emissions from energy and resource consumption in China decreased year by year,and had spillover effect in time and space.Shanxi,Ningxia,Inner Mongolia and other seven provinces were in the high-high(H-H)cluster state of industrial carbon emissions rebound effect.Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and other 17 provinces are in the low-LOW(L-L)aggregation state of industrial carbon emission rebound effect.(2)The more serious the regional dependence on resources,the more serious the rebound of industrial carbon emissions,and this impact has a spillover effect in time and space,the neighboring provinces and cities will be affected by its impact.(3)Regional economic growth will bring the concentration of regional technology,capital,human resources and other factors,driving the overall development of the region,and has a positive impact on controlling the rebound of industrial carbon emissions.(4)The impact of economic growth and resource dependence on regional industrial carbon emissions rebound has spatio-temporal lag effect and error effect,and the extrusion effect of regional indirect influence will aggravate the direct spatial effect.Through DID(differential difference method),2SLS(two-stage least square method)and RD model(fuzzy breakpoint regression model)to find IV(instrumental variable),this paper studies how economic development affects industrial energy consumption and carbon emission reduction under the influence of resource curse.The results show that: There is a consistent trend between regional industrial economic growth and regional energy consumption.In the TWO-stage regression model of DID,industrial economic growth of42% will bring an additional 44% of energy consumption.In the regression model with double IV variables,industrial economic growth of 8% will bring an additional 19% of energy consumption.Verify that the economic development speed in recent years is related to the utilization efficiency of natural resources.When the change rates of both economic and environmental variables(negative indicators of energy consumption)are positive,and the change of economic growth is faster than that of environmental variables,industrial energy consumption and economic growth achieve "weak decoupling",and the effect of external factors gradually weakens.When economic growth continues and environmental variables remain stable or decline,industrial energy consumption and economic growth achieve "strong decoupling",and the effect of external factors continues to weaken,reaching the stage of "absolute decoupling".Only by decoupling economic growth from industrial energy consumption can we better realize high-quality and low-carbon development of regional economy.China’s current industrial economic growth of 42% will bring an additional 44% of energy consumption,is still in the "weak decoupling" stage of development.According to the empirical results and analysis,put forward the policy advice,help to achieve the goals of "double carbon" in our country,realize the industrial production of energy saving and emission reduction,strengthen the ability of our country industry to adapt to the global climate change,reverse industrial carbon sink problem worse trend,become the harmonious coexistence between man and nature experience for reference,in orbit for the sustainable development of industry to realize the economic benefit and ecological benefit and win-win.