| With the rapid development of the economy and the acceleration of industrialization,the problem of haze pollution is becoming increasingly serious globally,and haze pollution has become one of the serious environmental problems facing the world today.In addition,the important task of air quality control is haze prevention and control.In recent years,in order to improve the current situation of haze pollution,China has introduced a series of prevention and control measures,which have slowed down the rate of pollutant emissions and achieved phased results.However,phenomena such as serious regional pollution still exist,and the problem of haze pollution still needs to be continuously addressed.The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that it is necessary to deepen the prevention and control of environmental pollution,continue to carry out the battle for blue sky defense,strengthen coordinated control of pollutants,and basically eliminate heavy pollution weather.In-depth study and implementation of the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,continuous efforts in pollution prevention and control,and strict prevention of haze pollution are important guarantees for promoting the smooth realization of air quality improvement goals.In recent years,domestic and foreign scholars have conducted a series of studies on the early warning of haze pollution and economic loss assessment,achieving certain results.However,existing research mainly focuses on short-term and ultra-short-term prediction of pollutant concentrations,ignoring the practical guidance of long-term prediction;in addition,haze pollution is a complex problem involving multiple systems,and its impact on economic activities is not only limited to health economic losses,but also involves tourism,transportation and agriculture,etc.Exploring the economic losses of haze only from a single perspective It is not conducive to the formulation of comprehensive prevention and control policies.To address the problems in existing research,this paper constructs a theoretical and methodological framework of"long-term early warning model of haze pollutant concentration-economic loss assessment system of haze pollution-haze pollution prevention and control mechanism research",carries out a more scientific research on long-term early warning and economic loss assessment of haze pollution based on the dual perspectives of residents’ health and tourism industry losses.Finally,from the perspective of causality,the path of haze pollution reduction is explored to provide theoretical reference for the formulation of a proven haze prevention and control policy.This study is divided into seven chapters:Chapter 1 describes the background,research significance,and related concepts of haze pollution in this paper,and summarizes the main research framework,innovations,and shortcomings.Chapter 2 summarizes and evaluates the research status of each part of the study.Chapter 3 is based on the grey prediction model and combined with different strategies to improve the traditional grey model.It constructs a long-term and stable haze pollution concentration early warning model.Chapter 4 constructs a loss assessment system for the health of residents caused by haze pollution,quantitatively analyzes the impact of haze pollution on the health of residents,and estimates future health and economic losses based on the proposed long-term warning model.Chapter 5 selects the tourism industry,which is more sensitive to the environment,to explore the losses caused by haze pollution to the economy of the industry,constructs a loss assessment system for the tourism industry based on the distribution of haze pollution.It uses the immune selection dragonfly optimization algorithm to determine the optimal distribution function of haze pollution,and evaluates the economic losses caused by urban tourism under different pollution levels.Chapter 6 explores the haze pollution prevention and control mechanism from the driving perspective,constructs an evaluation index system,and determines the main driving factors of PM2.5 concentration changes based on the improved grey correlation model,and proposes targeted haze pollution reduction strategies.Chapter 7 summarizes and looks forward to the entire work.The main research work in this study focuses on the following four aspects:(1)Haze pollution control cannot be achieved overnight,and systematic and long-term early warning is more in line with the realistic requirements of haze prevention and control.Given that existing studies mainly focus on short-term and ultra-short-term prediction of pollutant concentrations,this paper constructs an early warning model for haze pollutant concentrations on a long-time scale,aiming to take advantage of the realism of long-term warning.This paper constructs a long-time-scale haze pollution concentration warning model based on the grey forecasting model.The Hausdorff fractional order derivative idea is used to improve the original accumulation method,and the augmented grey wolf optimizer-cuckoo search algorithm is introduced to determine the order of the fractional model.The development coefficient a and the grey action quantity b are obtained using this algorithm.In addition,to solve the problem of impact disturbance in the system,an un-average weakening buffer operator is constructed to process the system behavior sequence.The research results show that the Hausdorff fractional accumulation improves the problems of traditional accumulation and enhances the stability of the model.The selection of the order of the fractional model has a significant impact on the prediction accuracy.The optimal order selection can greatly improve the prediction performance of the model.The proposed parameter optimization method can further improve the performance of the model and significantly enhance the prediction ability of the benchmark model.The proposed un-average weight weakening buffer operator can suppress the impact of disturbance and is particularly effective for high-downspeed sequence operation.(2)To address the problem of how to accurately assess the economic loss caused by haze pollution on residents’ health,this study constructs a health economic loss assessment system based on historical data and future data to quantitatively assess the health impact and economic loss caused by the haze pollutant concentration exceeding the standard.Firstly,the primary pollutant factors are identified according to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Secondly,a long-term prediction model of pollutant concentration was creatively combined to achieve the estimation of future health economic loss.The research results show that:fine particulate matter PM2.5 remains the primary pollutant factor in most parts of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The excessive concentration of haze pollutants has had a significant negative impact on public health,especially in densely populated areas.Although the number of affected people has decreased year by year,it is still a staggering figure.From an economic loss perspective,excessive concentrations of pollutants have caused significant health and economic costs.(3)Existing research mainly focuses on the impact of haze pollution on residents’health,while neglecting the negative effects of haze pollution on other social industries.This study,from the perspective of the tourism industry,constructs an economic loss assessment framework based on the distribution function theory.To validate the effectiveness of the evaluation system,fourteen tourist hotspots in different geographical regions of China were selected as the research objects.The results show that PM2.5 pollution in different levels,including light pollution,moderate pollution,heavy pollution and severe pollution,has caused varying degrees of losses to China’s tourism industry.According to the loss estimation results,Light pollution causes the largest proportion of economic losses in the tourism industry.Although the air quality has been improving in recent years,the impact of haze pollution on the tourism industry is gradually decreasing,but the economic losses to tourist cities cannot be ignored.(4)In order to further explore the mechanism of haze pollution prevention and control and propose scientifically effective pollution reduction strategies,this study,from the driving perspective,identifies the main driving factors of PM2.5 concentration changes and proposes more targeted haze pollution reduction strategies.Firstly,based on a multi-factor perspective,a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed to analyze the driving factors of PM2.5.Secondly,based on the improved grey correlation method,the grey correlation and entropy correlation between PM2.5 concentration and each factor are calculated,and the factors that have a significant impact on PM2.5 concentration are screened.Taking Beijing as the research object,the research results show that the impact of socio-economic factors on PM2.5 is far greater than that of meteorological factors.Regional factors have a significant impact on PM2.5,and it is necessary to strengthen regional comprehensive governance and build a new situation of prevention and control with the integration of Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region.Attention should be paid to urban greening construction,as per capita park green space area is highly correlated with PM2.5,and the government should make further use of urban green space for PM2.5 purification.It is essential to optimize the energy structure,improve energy utilization efficiency,establish a clean and low-carbon energy system,and strictly control coal consumption,in order to make the sky bluer and promote low-carbon development.The main innovations of this paper can be summarized as follows:(1)A long-term prediction model for haze pollution concentration is developed by combining the buffer operator theory,parameter optimization methods,and fractional-order accumulation operator,which improves the traditional grey model from multiple aspects.Empirical results show that the proposed model has high accuracy in predicting PM2.5 concentration in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region,providing a new and effective tool for long-term prediction of haze pollution concentration.(2)To monetize the health hazards of haze pollution for residents,a loss assessment system for the health hazards of haze pollution for residents is constructed.The combination of the long-term warning system and the health economic loss system further expands the application prospects of the model,providing a novel evaluation tool for health economic loss assessment.(3)The economic losses caused by haze pollution are quantitatively assessed from the perspective of the tourism industry.The optimal distribution function of the main pollutants in haze is determined using the immune selection-based dragonfly optimization algorithm.Based on the optimal distribution of haze pollution,a theoretical framework for measuring the economic losses of haze pollution on the tourism industry is designed,providing new methods for the evaluation and analysis of haze pollution economic losses.(4)The grey correlation analysis method is improved to construct a comprehensive index correlation analysis framework,analyzing the driving factors of Beijing’s PM2.5 concentration from a multi-factor perspective,and improving environmental pollution control policies based on the driving factors,which is beneficial for providing more targeted suggestions for atmospheric governance policies. |
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