Study On The Coupling And Coordinated Development Of Wetland Ecosystem Services And Regional Economy In Dongting Lake

Accelerating the coordinated development of ecological economic coupling in China is a profound understanding based on the historical experience of the long-term development path and an important measure to achieve sustainable development.The Dongting Lake Wetland is located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.In April 2014,the State Council approved the Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone Plan,and the national Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone came into being.Dongting Lake Wetland Ecosystem and Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone,as an extremely important area for biodiversity conservation,a high-yield commodity grain base in China,and an ecological functional area for Yangtze River flood regulation and storage,under the background of adhering to the new development strategy of "ecological priority and green development",it is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out research on the spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of the coordinated development of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem services and regional economy.The paper systematically combs the theoretical context of the coordinated development of wetland ecosystem services and regional economy,and deeply expounds the connotation,characteristics and mechanism of the coordinated development of wetland ecosystem services and regional economy based on the new era.Based on the investigation of the status quo of the coupling and coordinated development of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem services and Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone,the paper has established a more scientific and comprehensive evaluation index system of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem service value,explored the dynamic evolution and driving factors of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem service value,and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem services.The value of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem services to the economic development of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone was calculated by combining the net primary productivity(NPP)model and Cobb Douglas production function,and the marginal price of net primary productivity of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem was calculated.On this basis,a coordination index model of ecosystem services and economic development was constructed.At the same time,a variety of influencing factors were selected to empirically analyze the service evolution of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem and the coordination index of comprehensive development of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone.The coordination degree of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem economic system in the period of 2000-2020 was obtained.A time-space analysis was carried out in combination with Yueyang City,Changde City,Yiyang City,and Wangcheng District of Changsha City.Then,the ARIMA-GM combined forecasting model is used to set up four future development scenarios,simulate and predict the development trend of the coupling and coordination degree of the Dongting Lake wetland ecological and economic complex system from 2025 to 2035,and explore the overall path of its coupling and coordination development level from a macro perspective.Finally,based on the previous analysis,the regulation and countermeasure system of the coupling and coordinated development of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem and economic system is studied.The contributions of the paper are mainly reflected in four aspects:First,from the overall perspective of the Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem,explore the spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of the coordinated development of the Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem and regional economy coupling through multiple time and space,highlighting the integrity and systematicness;The logic system and research perspective of the research will be expanded through interdisciplinary integration and application of theories and methods of ecology,ecological economics,econometrics,sustainable development theory,etc.The second is to use macro,meso and micro level data to reveal the coupling,coordination and evolution of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem services and Dongting Lake ecological economic zone,enriching the space-time level of the research on the coupling and coordinated development of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem and Dongting Lake ecological economic zone.Third,according to the overall logic of "status analysisspatio-temporal evolution-trade-off and synergy-driving factors-scenario assumptions and prediction-regulation system",the existing Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem service value measurement index system has been enriched according to the needs of theoretical and practical research,making it more comprehensive,systematic and scientific.Fourth,the net primary productivity(NPP)model and Cobb Douglas production function were used to measure the service value of the Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem,and the marginal price of net primary productivity was calculated,which enriched the static direct market method,market value method and other evaluation methods,The ARIMA-GM group model is used to simulate and predict the development trend of the coupling and coordination between the Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem and the Dongting Lake ecological economic zone from 2022 to 2035,providing a practical basis with strong operability for the scientific decision-making and policy formulation of the Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem protection,restoration and utilization,and the development of the ecological economic zone.According to this study,the following conclusions are drawn.(1)The positive value of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem services in 2020 will be 30482233.35×10~4 yuan,of which the supply value is 550046.6×10~4 yuan,accounting for 1.8%of the total value;Adjusted value 13358559.17×10~4 yuan,accounting for 43.83%of the total value;Support value is 456064.58×10~4 yuan,accounting for 1.5%of the total value;Social value 16117563 ×10~4 yuan,accounting for 52.87%of the total value;The negative value of Dongting wetland ecosystem in 2020 is 77977.37×10~4 yuan,and the negative value of alien invasion,water eutrophication,greenhouse gas emissions and pollen allergy is respectively 8778.12×10~4、54200×10~4、14600×10~4、399.25×10~4。The service value of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem will account for 29.12%of the total regional economy in 2020.The service value of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem in 2000,2012 and 2020 was 17147576.52×10~4 yuan,20084497.39×10~4 yuan and 30404255.98 yuan×10~4 yuan,accounting for 117.7%,40.3%and 29.12%of the total economic output of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone in that year.During the analysis period from 2000 to 2020,the service value of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem showed an overall growth trend,a slow growth from 2000 to 2012,and a rapid growth from 2013 to 2020.(2)From 2000 to 2012,among the 324 pairs of relationship values composed of various service items in the Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem,153 pairs were in the status of trade-off relationship and 171 pairs were in the status of synergy relationship.The proportions of trade-off relationship and synergy relationship were 52.78%and 47.22%respectively.From 2000 to 2012,the service trade-offs of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem dominated.From 2013 to 2020,among the 324 groups of relationship values composed of various service items in the Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem,131 pairs were in the status of trade-off relationship and 293 pairs were in the status of synergy relationship.The proportions of trade-off relationship and synergy relationship were 40.44%and 59.56%respectively.During this period,the synergy relationship between various service items in the dynamic change process of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem services dominated the relationship.(3)From 2000 to 2020,the most significant driving factors of positive service of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem are:the supply service of animal and plant resources products is mainly driven by the number of people(r=0.86,p<0.01)and the proportion of non-agricultural land area(r=0.93,p<0.01),There is a significant positive correlation between water supply services and the driving factors of wetland area(r=0.89,p<0.05)and annual average rainfall(r=0.83,p<0.05);Gas regulation(r=-0.90,p<0.05)and soil protection(r=-0.86,p<0.05)services showed significant negative correlation with annual average temperature drivers.From 2000 to 2020,the extremely significant driving factors of negative service of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem were:negative service of alien biological invasion and annual average temperature(r=0.88,p<0.05),negative service of water eutrophication and annual average temperature driving factors showed a very significant positive correlation(r=0.85,p<0.05).(4)From 1978 to 2020,every 1%increase in net primary productivity of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem will promote the GDP growth of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone by 0.0369%;Under the function of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem services,the economic growth has smoothed the short and medium term imbalance of the economic system operation of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone at an annual rate of 2.6%,and has progressed to a long-term equilibrium.At the same time,the marginal price of net primary productivity of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem from 1978 to 2020 is 347.5 yuan/106kgC(based on the price in 1978).(5)From 2000 to 2020,the coordination indexes of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem and Yueyang,Changde,Yiyang and Changsha Wangcheng District of Dongting Lake Ecological Economic Zone were 0.022,0.020,0.018 and 0.023 respectively,which were greater than 0 and less than 1,and were in a "basic coordination" state.From 2000 to 2012,the ecological and economic coordination indexes of Yueyang,Changde,Yiyang and Changsha Wangcheng District were-0.065,-0.071,-0.073 and-0.063 respectively,which were greater than-1 but less than 0,all in a "light conflict" state;From 2013 to 2020,the eco economic coordination indexes of Yueyang,Changde,Yiyang and Changsha Wangcheng District were 0.031,0.028,0.024 and 0.030,respectively,which were greater than 0 but less than 1,all in a "basic coordination" state.(6)From 2000 to 2020,the coupling and coordination degree of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem and Dongting Lake eco economic zone is:from 2000 to 2005,it is in the stage of being in danger of imbalance,from 2006 to 2012,it is in the stage of barely coordinating,from 2013 to 2017,it is in the stage of primary coordination,from 2018 to 2019,it is in the stage of intermediate coordination,and from 2020,it is in the stage of good coordination.At the same time,four future development scenarios are set up and ARIMA-GM combined model is used to simulate and predict the coupling and coordinated development trend of Dongting Lake wetland ecosystem and Dongting Lake eco economic zone from 2025 to 2035.The multi scenario prediction results show that the coupling coordination degree is on the rise.Under Scenario 4 mode,the coupling degree between subsystems is high,and the coordination degree is steadily improving.By 2029,the coupling coordination can reach a high level.