The Research On Monitoring And Warning Model Of Marine Economy

Marine is a common strategic choice and path of development for all the major countries in the world. Most of strong economies all over the world have close relationship with marine. Marine is a food resources base, an important energy base, a deep ocean resources base, a water resources base, a renewable energy base, a raw-material resources base, cyberspace resources for human survival and living, the transportation hub for the world transportation and marine industries thus become a new growth point for world economy. It has been widely realized that marine will be the ultimate place for human survival and living so that countries all over the world are paying special attention to marine exploit and development. Maritime powers, like the United States, Japan, Britain, France etc, all have attached great importance to the development of marine high-tech group, and hence have invested a lot of money and human resources for research and development of technologies and equipment for marine monitoring, marine diving, marine living beings, marine exploit, etc.However, with the development of marine economy and the improvement in the status of marine in the national economy, factors that restrict the healthy development of marine are becoming more and more prominent. Due to the restriction of technical means and methods, there isn't comprehensive control and systematic analysis of marine economy situation and regulation so that we can not meet the needs of macroeconomic regulation and control of marine economy.Therefore, a study in model of marine economic monitoring and early warning, and the formation of systematic theory and support system, have become one of significant basic work of marine economy macro-control and regulation for national marine administrative departments and coastal local governments, an important part of national marine industry's development, the basic guarantee for a sustainable development of marine economy, and also one of the important indexes of national marine economy's comprehensive strength.Currently, subject to a number of subjective and objective constraints, the monitoring and forecasting of marine economy is basically still in the blank, whereas macro-economic monitoring and early warning studies have been carried out at home and abroad for many years and made a lot of achievements, so this paper attempts to do primary research into the model of marine economic monitoring and early warning based on the research into macroeconomic monitoring and early warning, and includes six parts structured as follows:Partâ… is the related theory of marine economic monitoring and early warning models and mainly includes three parts:theory of marine economy, marine cycle and fluctuation theory and related concepts of economic early warning, which is the theoretical basis throughout the study.Partâ…¡is the review of economic early warning at home and abroad, and introduces the course development of economic monitoring and early warning at home and abroad, and moreover the method used in economic monitoring and early warning, thus providing tools for the following empirical research into marine economy.Partâ…¢is the establishment of index system of marine economic monitoring, which is redeemed as the core of the qualitative research. We have established a monitoring index system including first, simultaneous and lagging indexes, and the index system includes a total of 26 indexes that can reflect marine operation more comprehensively, scientifically and systematically, so the index system has laid a solid foundation for the whole research.Partâ…£is the analysis of marine economy prosperity, using the marine economy monitoring index system created above and our data obtained, conducts the analysis of marine economy prosperity of China during the period from 1999 to 2007, and figures out both indexes that directly reflect the extent of prosperity:the diffusion index DI and composite index CI.Partâ…¤first selects 10 indexes of more importance in the marine economy monitoring index system, and builds the model of marine economy early warning based on the prosperity light so that we can observe the situation of marine economy and thus provide the basis for marine economy regulation, control and decision-making. Finally, we calculates the index of marine economy early warning and predict the early warning indexes from 2008 to 2010 using the Grey Systems GM(1,1) method.Partâ…¥is a summary and outlook. There is a summary of this paper and then a thought of what to be carried out next.