Research On Development And Application Of Landslide Prediction System Based On GIS

China is a mountainous country, especially in the northwest and southwest where landslides run riot because of the especially geological environments and conditions. If the precise time of landslides breaking can be predicted earlier, some effective and useful measures will be taken as early as possible in order to minimize the losses caused by unexpected landslides. The research on failure time prediction of landslides, therefore, is significant.Firstly, a series of problems about the failure time prediction are discussed in this paper. The problems mentioned above include the theory and method to divide the failure time prediction into three phases of long term, short term and imminent term, the method and principle to select and process parameters used by the failure time prediction, the step to establish the criterions of prediction, the principle to classify and select the prediction models. At the same time, a new method to deal with the results produced by different prediction models is pointed out. After then, several representative methods, such as Verhulst model, Exponential smoothing method and Karwmwa model, etc, are discussed in detail respectively.Then, the systemic sketch to develop a new landslide prediction system based on GIS is pointed out based on the theory of Software Engineering. And some key technologies, such as Object Oriented Analysis (OOA), Object Oriented Design (OOD), COM and ActiveX technology, System online help, correspondingly, are discussed in detail respectively. Then, the landslide prediction system based on GIS is perfectly designed. Afterwards, the file management subsystem, the prediction subsystem and the database management subsystem, which are divided from the only parent-system (the landslide prediction system based on GIS), are designed and programmed in detail respectively. Thus, the Secondary development based on MAPGIS is performed to construct the landslide prediction system.At the end of the paper, the failure time predictions of several landslides-Hongci landslide in Yongjing of Gansu province, Xintan landslide, Huanglongxicun landslide and Wolongsi landslide are performed by using above methods and programs. And the prediction results indicate that it is effective and satisfying to carry out the failure time prediction of landslide in this way.