The Study Of Weather Early Warning For Geological Disaster On Lintong County

This article based on the geological disaster investigation and differentiating for Lintong county, according to the research analysis for this area's geological disaster growth and regional distribution rule and primary dominated factor (landform and hypsography, geotechnical associations of engineering) and the cause factor (the intensity of human activity), used the graded model of expert's experience and the Mapgis software's spatial analysis function, differentiating the geological disaster growing degree of the Lintong county. According to the geological disaster social attribute research, took the social attribute each primary factor (the population density, the project constructs facility, the land utilization type) as sub-chart and analyzed, obtained the dividing result of geology disaster hazardous degree, utilizes the similar method. The synthesis considered the geological disaster growing degree district and disaster hazardous degree, obtain the Lintong area geological disaster weather early warning space district, takes it as the geological disaster's of target weather early warning.Through to research the coupling function of the geotechnical and the hydrology environment and the evacuator condition in the chain of geological disaster, exposed the rule relations which the Lintong area geological disaster and the atmosphere rains, and exposed specially the characteristic rule of dynamic process in dilapidation and landslide. On this foundation, put forward the infiltrating- fluxion analysis model of weather early warning in geological disaster which based on the theory unsaturated loess's strength and the theory of loess's osmosis rule and the theory of limiting equilibrium analysis. And aims at the different rank of early forecast space region, utilization the statistical model and the infiltrating- fluxion analysis model, and take the raining duration with the limiting rainfall amount as the judgment target, made out initially judged chart of rains cause the dilapidation landslide in the main and the sub-emphasis early warning area of Lintong area .