The Study Of Westher Early Warning For Geological Disaster In Han Yin Country, Shaanxi Province

Hanyin county of Ankang municipality which located in the mountainous area in southern cross of Bashan, north Q inling, central Shaanxi, is one of vulnerable regions of geological disasters. Hanyin’s geological morphology is mainly mountainous, with high hills and deep valleys. In the rainy season, it can lead to different scales of disasters such as collapse, landslides and debris flows. And through long-term observation and analysis, the paper provides the trigger condition of these geological disasters(earthquake, rainfall, tectonic movement and human engineering activities). It reveals that rainfall is the most direct factor in terms of trigger condition. Therefore, the research of Hanyin geological disasters for meteorological early warning forecast is imperative.According to the Hanyin county geological disaster investigation and regionalization report together with the situation of geological hazards, geological environment background and its history, this paper collects information about the background of geological disasters in Hanyin county. Besides, the historical rainfall type of geological disasters happened is also collected.After analyzing the collected data, the paper determines the six evaluation factors(topography and geomorphology, geological structure, rock and soil body type, rainfall and human engineering activities, the disaster hazard point). After that, the analytic hierarchy process(APH) is used to calculate weights of each evaluation factor, according to these indicators generated by MAPGIS analysed Hanyin geologic disaster danger division.Depend on the five evaluation factors(population density, density of highway route, GDP density, density of cultivated land, the government’s attention degree) of the 14 towns of Hanyin, the fuzzy judgment method of Hanyin county geological disaster vulnerability is used. Generated by above Hanyin county geological disaster risk and vulnerability zoning maps, with superposition calculation, the Hanyin geological disaster warning zone is obtained.Relying on the historical rainfall data, after the processing of a forecast data, we can get the critical value of rainfall which induces geological hazard. And then, the coupling forecastearly warning model is established. Thus the Hanyin county geological disaster weather early warning model can be dipicted, and its results in geological disaster forecast warning graph and text can be expressed.