Establishment Of Multi-similitude Forecasting System By Using MICAPS

Similitude forecasting is one of the main methods used by weather forecaster to make weather forecast. Weather forecaster always gives out the opinion, according to accumulation of the similar weather information record in history and synthetical judgment. The purpose of the study is to create multi-similitude forecasting system, which is based on the theory and formula of similitude weather forecast, so as to provide valuable objective tool for weather forecasting.Historical material of 500hPa from 1951 to 2005, and historical weather element information of 80 meteorological observation stations in Gansu Province were utilized. User can select different kinds of parameters to put into the system, including historical material and collative central document, the start year and end year, key area, average days, slippage days, effectivity of forecasting and so on. Similar weather examples could be found out by using formulas of similar factors theory. At last, the historical weather elements database was transferred by MICAPS system in order to give direction to forecasting.Synthetical analysis of similar factors theory formulas within many similitude forecasting were analyzed in this study, and traditional single calculation mode had been improved, which could make the application very easy, since the systematical combination of the system and MICAPS.In this study,multi-similitude factors have been used in the calculation of forecasting; the conclusion is more significant of reference and the system is more applicable in result; multi-similitude forecasting system has reached the requirement of general operation in meteorological department, which could be an assistant of daily weather forecasting; and the role of forecasting instruction is outstanding. It's own characteristics and creative points.The study of the multi-similitude forecasting system is based on practical operation requirement. The system can be used as a forecasting tool in any meteorological stations when the work of exploitation is finished. During the system exploitation, convenience of transplanting is considering, therefore, green software is made. When it is used, the only thing we need to do is copy directly and set parameters. The merit of the system is new information and historical material can be well compatible with each other, which makes popularization much easier. After the test in the central meteorological observation of Lanzhou area, it is found that the system is significant for weather forecasting and worth to apply in any meteorological observation stations.