Study On Prediction Methods For High Engineering Slope

Accompany with the accomplishment and using of Three Gorge Dam, except few local residents moving to other places, most of them move to upland, so a great number of immigrants need a lot of land to settle down. However, both sides of the bank of Three Gorge Reservoir are high valley and mountain, very little flat ground can be used, in that case, it is unavoidable that the land using for immigrating and rebuilding forms man-made high-cutting slope. If these high-cutting slopes destabilized, it will reflect on great losing, so it is very important to make forecast of the stability of engineering high-cutting slope. A landslide forecast is one of the most effective ways to alleviate the damage caused by landslides disasters. It also is the crucial and difficult topic for landslides stuty. At the same time, it is the important means of prevention and control of geological hazards and the environmental protection.This paper is based on the general review on the achievements in the field of landslides forecast, aimed at the main problem of stuty on landslides forecast. The theories to landslides forecast are summarized comprehensively and systematically.Firstly, looked back the related researches about landslides forecast at home and abroad. The key concepts of landslides forecast such as landslides forecast course, space forecast, time prediction, damage loss forecast are define and stated. Secondly, analyzed the parameters of space forecast, sum up the methods of selecting parameters and summarized the methods of researching on space forecast at home and abroad. Thirdly combining with the State Council Three Gorges Project Construction Committee Executive Office program, after widely consulting the domestic and foreign documentation and material related to landslides forecast, analyzed the displacement monitor data of the JC605 high-cutting slope in Chongqing and predicted its destabilization time using the GM(1,1) model and the Verhulst model. Meanwhile, based on the analysis of distortion and destroy mechanism of landslide, taking the character of landslide system into account, and find out the factors that do its work with the stability of slope, looked into a lot of slope case history and make them into sample data that import to the neural network to forecast which slope will destroyed, at the same time, created the system and flow path that using the MatLab software to early warning the dangerous slopes.