The Forecast Research For Oil Spill Of Submarine Pipeline

As the environment protection has been regarded more than before, people pay more and more attention to oil spill model at sea. Many oil spill models have been build in the world recently, such as OILMAP of ASA, GNOME of NOAA, and OSCAR of Norway. However, little research focus on oil spill accidents occurred underwater, for instance the oil pipeline broken, or the oil spill from sink ships. As the exploitation and utilization of petroleum in the sea and the crude oil import by VLCC or ULCC, seabed pipeline has been used more widely than before. It is essential to take special research on oil spill of that. On the basis of Princeton ocean model (POM), this paper introduced and improved the open boundary condition of that, and built the three-dimension dynamic model. The oil spill modeling adopts three-dimensional advection-diffusion equation to simulate the oil slick diffusion. According to Markovian theory and Langevin equation with random ambulate in concern simulated the excursion and diffusion of oil.In the basis of theory and methods above, the three-dimension current field with SBM as the center of Maoming sea area is simulated. Based on the current field, oil spill trace which is assumed that occurred on SBM and submarine pipeline nearby of that is tracked and forecasted. Results show that the theory is correct and the method is suitable. But the complex situation of submarine oil spill needs to be studied more profoundly in the future.