The Research And Application Of Air Pollution Accidents Forecasting

Dramatic development of industry and mass utilization of Chemicals in fields of industry, not only the industry level is boosted, but also the huge risks of outbreak of pollution accidents are generated every now and again. The chemical pollution accident not only threats human lives and safety of property, but also imposes damages on water, atmosphere and all environment circles. Wavelet analysis and transmission principle of pollutants is studied, proper model for description is adopted, on-time prediction and analysis of consequences of the accident is conducted and appropriate preventive mechanism is proposed on the basis of previous analysis in the article.Firstly, the time-changing trend of concentration on air pollutant is analyzed by using the wavelet reconstruction of low frequency signals of the highest layer. Then, a new prediction model based on wavelet time series are developed. By wavelet decomposing, air pollutant concentration series is decomposed into many wavelet coefficient series according to scale, by building time series model, prediction results of every wavelet coefficient series are acquired. Subsequently, by reconstructing the result, we get the forecasting of original series. This wavelet time series prediction model is adapt to nonlinear and nonstationary time series, and can make multi-step prediction into reality. This paper has deeply researched the application of wavelet analysis in air pollution prediction, widened its application scope in air pollution prediction, and established firm base for further air pollution analysis and prediction.Through the spread of the Gaussian model, sudden accidents were simulated by designing air pollution accidents forecasting system. According to the wavelet decomposition and reconstruction of the concentration of pollutants of the time series, the consequences of the accident in time for the forecast and analysis will be predicted. The powerful urgent search function can be supplied by the system of air pollution accidents forecasting and analysis, it can search the inquiries to pollutants and the details of the accident data in the past.