The Analysis On Calculation And Characteristics Of Greenhouse Gas Emission In Mega-cities

Climate Warming caused by the deepening greenhouse effect problem has become an important factor affecting the global economy and the sustainable development of society. In the process of implementing the strategy of sustainable development, the greenhouse gas emission reduction is the unquestionable nuclear part. As a developing country suffering the adverse effects of climate change, despite the "Kyoto Protocol" does not require the emission reduction targets of developing countries, the Chinese government attaches great importance to climate change, and respectively, in 1993 and 2002, joined "the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" and "Kyoto Protocol". Since Shanghai is the largest industrial city, the energy consumption has shown rapid growth with the economic development, and in the same time, the greenhouse gas emission also increases.Under the circumstances, this thesis taking the research on greenhouse gas emission characteristics of Megacity as its mainstream, and from the interdisciplinary perspective of systematics, environics and others, systematically probes into the status of the greenhouse gas emission and the study on emission characteristics using the combination of methods of theoretical research and empirical analysis in order to provide a reference for similar areas.Firstly, based on collecting a mass data and arranging the internal and external greenhouse gas emission research, this thesis summarizes the various greenhouse gas emission factors, and also builds the measuring and calculating methods of Megacity greenhouse gas emission; Secondly , taking Shanghai as an example, it arranges the energy utilization situation in Shanghai in recent years to realize the overall condition of energy consumption; Thirdly, based on calculation of greenhouse gas emission caused by energy utilization, it analyzes the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission condition of main departments of energy use , and recognize the major departments or industries causeing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission; Fourthly, it analyzes the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission overall characteristics caused by energy utilization, and the carbon emission characteristics of the energy-intensive departments in Shanghai; Fifthly, it probes into the impact on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission from the aspects of economic, population, urbanization and technology, and thus predicts the trend of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission caused by energy utilization; Sixthly, it explores greenhouse gas emission reduction potential, and in the same time, analyzes the feasibility of emission reduction; Seventhly, it puts forward practical measures according to greenhouse gas emission condition in Shanghai, in order to provide reference for decision-makers when make policies. It includes mainly the following areas:(1) This thesis emphatically analyzes the emission situation of greenhouse gas in Shanghai. By calculating greenhouse gas emission of energy, land use change, human respiration, cement production, the treatment for sewage and domestic waste and so on, it comes to the conclusion that the emission quantity of greenhouse gas in energy consumption is the largest and the greenhouse gas emission is mainly emitted by the industrial departments (including power generation).(2) This thesis mainly probes into the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission characteristics of the energy utilization departments in Shanghai, and attempts to explain the pressure of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission caused by energy consumption on the ecological environment from the aspect of carbon footprint of energy utilization. In this thesis, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission and emission intensity are decomposed and analyzed by using the method of LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index), which is a new complete decomposition approach and gives no residual error.The results reveal that the factors of energy efficiency and energy consumption structure can decline carbon emission, however, the improvement of energy efficiency plays a major role; From 2001 to 2006, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission caused by energy consumption was incresing in Shanghai; In addition, population and per capita GDP both are the incitant factors, however, energy structure and energy efficiency both are the repress factors.(3) This thesis analyzes the impact on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the aspects of economic, population, urbanization and technology by using STIRPAT model, and reachs appropriate conclusions. They include that, to 2006, with the increase of per capita GDP, carbon dioxide emission of energy use does not appear the inverted "U" type of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, and the correlative models between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission and economic, population, urbanization and technology were established. It sets up 10 kinds of scenes about population, economy, urbanization and technology, and thus predicts carbon dioxide emission in 2010, 2015 and 2020. The result reveals that, by 2010, 2015 and 2020, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission caused by energy utilization in Shanghai are 167.5923-181.7627 million tons, 186.132-210.0049 million tons and 197.8258-241.3329 respectively.(4) Based on analyzing the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential in Shanghai, this thesis gets the conclusions that the absolute amount of greenhouse gas emission can be reduced by adjusting the energy structure, and increasing the proportion of clean energy use is the most effective method of greenhouse gas emission reduction. For example, if the proportion of clean energy use could be increased by 1% in 2006, then about 1.8 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalence could be reduced. However, adjusting the industrial structure can not significantly reduce the greenhouse gas emission. Similarly, for instance, if the proportion of tertiary industry could be increased by 1% and the proportion of secondary industry could be declined 1% in 2006, then only 120,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalence could be reduced.