Dynamic Change And Forecast Research Of Ecological Footprint In Heilongjiang

Protecting natural environment and implementing the sustainable developmental strategy to realize the economy and ecological environment coordinative development,is an urgent and arduous task all the world.The ecological footprint method put forward and improved by William E Rees,Canadian ecological,and Wackernagel Mathis,the former postgraduate since 1996 presents a simple frameword for national natural capital accounting.Based on the ecologieal footprint theory and caleulation method,a flow network analysis method was introdueed to illuminate the strueture of complex ecological economic system,and the relationship among the ecological footprint diversity and development capacity was analyzed.Through looking up Previous statistiecs yeathook of Heilongjiang Province,this paper applied the ecological footprint analysis to ealeulate and analyze the ecological footprint and correlative indexes from 2000 to2008.First of all, this paper takes the sustainable development,the article primary coverage,the domestic and foreign research present situation as the theory background; the next, we propose the ecology footprint method and formula;Then basing on Heilongjiang's naturestate,construct sustainable development's target,analysis ecology footprint and the ecology supporting capacity in Heilongjiang Province in 2008 as well as the ecology footprint indexes of correlation;contrasting China's indexes of correlation,it exposes current ecosystem sustainable development condition.Finally,applied the grey theory to forecast the ecological footprint,the ecological carrying capacity and the ecological deficit from 2010 to 2020,proposes the countermeasure to realize the sustainable development.The conclusion of the analysis as follow:(1)The per capita ecological footprint demand of Heilongjiang province is 7.1809ha,the per capita ecological footprint supply of Heilongjiang province is 2.5197ha,the per capita ecological deficit reaches as high as 4.6612ha,the regional ecological deficit is 17829.25 ha,so it is not in a sustainable condition.(2)The per capita ecological footprint basically increases progressively year by year,the per ecological carrying capacity reduces after increasing,the per ecological deficit increases continually gradually.Ecological deficit's change rule same with the ecology footprint change tendency.Looking from the correlative indexes of ecological footprint,the ecological footprint of10thousand Yuan decreases progressively,the ecological footprint multiplicity unceasingly increases progressively year by year.The development ability of the ecological and economic system enhance on the whole.(3)According to the developing pattern, through GM(1,1) model forecast,the per capita ecological footprint is12.7789hm~3,the per ecological carrying capacity and per ecological deficit are respectively 4.1956 hm~3 and 8.5833 hm~3.(4)In order to reduce the ecological deficit and realize the region sustainable development in Heilongjiang province,detailed measures that should be taken are as follow:perfecting land system, protects the farming;adjusting industrial structure, raises the resources use efficiency;Controlling population quantity, enhances the population the quality;Increasing the ecology supporting capacity,enhances the productive potential.