Study The Impact Law Of The Parameter Sensibility In The Prediction Model Of Atmospheric Environment Impact Appraise

In atmosphere environmental impact assessment, the most important step is using predictive model of atmospheric environmental impact to calculate the predictive value of pollution concentration, according to the emission intensity of pollution sources and local meteorological data.In this paper, the sensitivity of the prediction of atmospheric parameters in the model is taken as a starting point of the issue. Through the analysis, AERMOD and ADMS model are selected as the research objects for analysis. In this article, in combination of regression analysis methods with orthogonal methods, the impactive law of the sensitivity of the system parameters is clarified from different perspectives. And based on a large number of simulation studies from the system of ADMS model and AERMOD model, the Influence law of the sensitivity of the system parameters is studied. It plays a guiding role in a focused collection of the relevant information for the environmental impact assessment work. Meanwhile, a reasonable assessment of errors due to not accurate parameters is made. Therefore, the forecast parts of the atmosphere of the environmental impact assessment work is further refined.The Result of the Influence Law about the Sensitivity of parameters in AERMOD model as following:1. Sensitivity of parameters under the point source are arranged as follows:Geometric height of the chimney (H)> Emission intensity of point source (Q,)> export diameter of chimney (d)> Flue gas temperature of exports (Ts)> Flue gas flow of exports (Qv).The geometric height of chimney and emission intensity should be exact when collecting information for environmental impact assessment.2. Sensitivity of parameters under the body source are arranged as follows:Emission Intensity of body source (Qs)> Average height of body source (H)>Side of body source (L1). The accuracy of the emission intensity should be paid more attention when collecting information.3. Sensitivity of parameters under the non-point source are arranged as follows:Average height of non-point source (H)>Emission intensity of non-point (Qs)>Side of non-point source (L0), Average height of non-point source (H)>Emission intensity of non-point (Qs)> radius (R),The average height and emission intensity of non-point source should be exact to unit's place when collecting information. And the result of pollution sources should keep the third decimal place.The Result of the Influence Law about the Sensitivity of parameters in ADMS model as following:1. From the parameter sensitivity of the region's largest concentration of law point of view, the rules for different sources of high pollution and the sensitivity of each parameter effect on the region's largest concentration forecast are the same:surface roughness> latitude> minimum length M-O.2. From the point of parameter sensitivity concerning law of the average concentration, the sensitivity of parameters is:surface roughness> latitude> minimum length M-O. The law of parameter sensitivity keeps same with trend of the region's largest concentration.