Sensitivity Analysis Of Parameters In Predictive Models Of Atmospheric Environmental Impact

In atmosphere environmental impact assessment,the most important step is using predictive models of atmospheric environmental impact to calculate the predictive value of pollution concentration according to the emission intensity of pollution sources and local meteorological data.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the sensitivity of parameters in AERMOD model and EIAA model systems by a large quantity of analog computation.The data is according to the meteorological and pollution data of previous project.Estimate parameters sensitivity in the atmospheric prediction model plays a guiding role in the collection relevant information in environmental impact assessment.At the same time,it can also make a more reasonable assessment of errors leaded by inaccurate parameters,and then refine the atmospheric forecast of environmental impact assessment.The research results of sensitivity of every source parameters in AERMOD modeling system are as follows:1.Sensitivity of parameters under the point source are arranged as follows:Geometric height of the chimney(H)＞Emission intensity of point source(Q_s)＞Flue gas temperature of exports(T_s)＞Flue gas flow of exports(Q_v)＞Export diameter of chimney(d);The geometric height of chimney and emission intensity should be exact when collecting information for EIA.2.Sensitivity of parameters under the non-point source are arranged as follows:Average height of non-point source(H_? )＞Emission intensity of non-point(Q_s)＞Side(or radius R)of non-point source(L_s);The average height and emission intensity of non-point source should be exact when collecting information;In addition,the angle of non-point source which is similar to rectangular,the result will change.3.Sensitivity of parameters under the body source are arranged as follows:Emission intensity of body source(Q_s)＞Side of body source(L_b)＞Average height of body source(H_?).We'd better pay more attention to the accuracy of the emission intensity when collecting information.4.Sensitivity of parameters under the line source are arranged as follows:Average height of line source(H_?)＞Emission intensity of line source(Q_s).Sensitivity of the average height of line source is higher than else,we' better pay more attention to it.The research results of point source parameters' sensitivity in EIAA modeling system under the conditions of small static wind are as follows:1.Sensitivity of the source parameters are arranged as follows:Geometric height of the chimney(H)＞Emission intensity of point source(Q_s)＞Flue gas volume of exports of chimney(Q_v)＞Export diameter of chimney(d)＞Flue gas temperature of exports of chimney (T_s).2.Sensitivity of the meteorological parameters are arranged as follows:Average wind speed of 10min of 10m height from the ground level(U₁₀)＞Environmental air temperature.3.Under the conditions of small static wind,the geometric height of the chimney and emission intensity of source should be exact when collecting information.Holding two decimal when counting the average wind speed under the conditions of small static wind;the units should be exact when counting the environmental air temperature.