Forecasting Of Industrial Carbon Emissions And Potential Analysis Of Low-Carbon City Construction In Tianjin

Tianjin is a super-huge industry city and the manufacturing center in the north of China. The pillar industries of Tianjin include aerospace, petrochemical, machinery and equipment of metallurgy and so on,most part of which need high consumption of energy and materials to complete the process of the product, but the service industries which are low energy intensity and low greenhouse gas emissions developed with relatively lower speed in Tianjin. Therefore, it has to develop low-carbon economy, enhance the utilization ratio of energy and cut down industry carbon emissions for the the low-carbon city construction and industries sustainable development in Tianjin. The industry carbon emissions were put as the breakpoint, and in the meantime, combined with the industry and informatization of key research project in the twelfth five-year plan that is"Strategy research of developing Green economy, circular economy and low-carbon economy in Tianjin",the master-degree thesis was wroten. It main include the following aspects:Firstly, to summarize the research status of low-carbon economy and low-carbon city at home and abord, and to do a system analysis for the general inerrorformation of industry energy consumption in Tianjin, which can show that the industrial carbon emissions are still a bottle-neck for the economy and sustainable development in Tianjin, and put forward to the main question of developing low-carbon economy in Tianjin and do the quantitative inspection for the relationship between carbon emissons and economic increase, and calculate the relational degree between industrial eimissons and economic increase, which could supply the data for Tianjin industry reduce carbon eimissons programming.Secondly, made a comparative analysis to various methods of forecasting, and the gray system theory and regression analysis were selected to forecast the quantity of industrial carbon emissions from 2010 to 2020. Put forward to the developing train of thought and indicator system of low-carbon city construction, and make an analysis to the relativity potential factors of low-carbon city construction in Tianjin, which supply new ideas and mirror for programming of low-carbon city construction in Tianjin.Finally, combined with the actual situation of Tianjin, the countermeasures for low-carbon city construction in Tianjin were put forward.