Forecast Of Carbon Emission Peak In Hebei Province Based On STIRPAT Model

Global climate change has attracted the attention of all countries in the world.In this context,the Paris Conference,which is known as the “turning point of the world”,was held.At the meeting,China demonstrated to the international community the style of a great country and took the initiative to undertake the task of energy conservation and emission reduction,and promised to reach the peak of carbon emissions around 2030.Later,in the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,a modern economic system was put forward,emphasizing the need to build a resource-saving and environment-friendly society.It can be seen that China is moving towards a low-carbon economy with strategic deployment.Due to the vastness of China’s territory and the development of different regions,it is necessary to adopt a methodological analysis of specific issues to explore how to promote carbon emissions to reach its peak by 2030.Hebei Province is the industry ground for the Beijing-Tianjin-Wing region.Its economic development is largely based on the large consumption of energy.Therefore,the task of energy conservation and emission reduction is very arduous.This paper analyzes the future peak of carbon emissions in Hebei Province as a research object,and aims to find a sustainable development path suitable for future development to ensure the completion of the national external commitment target.The main body of this paper is divided into four modules.First,this paper collects data from Hebei Province so as to summarize the economy,population,urbanization process,energy consumption,and finally draw the carbon emissions of the research area since the 21 st century,paving the way for the next step research.Secondly,the LMDI method is used to factorize the carbon emission increment,and the time period is divided into one year and five years to analyze the contribution value and contribution rate of each indicator.Thirdly,on the basis of the LMDI method,the influencing factors are expanded into six factors: per capita GDP,population,urbanization rate,technology level,secondary industry share,and coal consumption proportion.And then the advantage of ridge regression model is considered to establish a stable STIRPAT model.Fourth,considering the actual situation in Hebei Province,the changing rate of the six influencing factors and the four scenarios that may occur in the future are set.Four scenarios are the inertia emission reduction scenario,the development emission reduction scenario,the relative emission reduction scenario,and the absolute emission reduction scenario,and include at least four possible programs in each scenario.The next step is to use this as an input to the prediction equation to output possible peak times and peaks in the future.The research results show that economic activity,population size and energy consumption structure are the positive driving factors of carbon emissions in Hebei Province,and technological progress is the main force to curb the increase of carbon emissions.After the expansion of the STIRPAT model,it is found that the coefficients of the other five elements were positive except for the coefficient of technological progress,which was in line with the objective reality.The peaks reached in Hebei Province vary according to different scenarios.The overall situation is reached from 2025 to 2035.The most reasonable solution is Scheme 1 under the relative emission reduction scenario,that is,all six factors are developed at moderate speed.By the end of 2030,the peak carbon emission reached 40.96 million tons.Under this program,the society can be fully energized and protected from the ecological environment.The empirical results prove that economic development and environmental protection are not antagonistic.As long as the advanced low-carbon concepts and technologies are fully utilized,the requirements for protecting the environment will not become the constraints of economic development,but will improve the quality of economic development.Finally,based on the peak results,five aspects of the emission reduction strategy are given.