The Research On Life Cycle Carbon Emissions Measurement Of Electric Power Generation Side Based On The Scenario Analysis Method

In recent years, climate warming effect is increasing, greenhouse gas emissions has become the focus of the world, emissions reduction schedules of the first half of this century has been put forward solemnly by IPCC and other international organizations. As the main greenhouse gas, Carbon dioxide is the main contributor to global warming, so reducing carbon emissions is very important to reduce global warming effect. In greenhouse gas emissions, the energy industry, especially and the most obvious industry of carbon emissions is electric power industry. The reality of China's coal-based energy structure and high thermal energy ratio is the main cause of carbon emissions significantly. Reduce carbon emissions in coal power industry is the key way to realize the low carbon development of our electric power industry.The production of primary energy, raw materials transport and power generation activities will produce large greenhouse gas emissions, whereas people considered electricity as a clean and efficiency article when power used over the past, but often ignored the inviromental impact of electricity at the generation side. At the first, the article adopts life cycle analysis method to gives a fully discussion and measurement on the coal power chain's carbon emissions in coal production, coal transportation and coal-fied link. At the end, it draws out the conclusion that strengthen the management of power generation link and reduce its carbon emissions are the key control measures.In order to predict the carbon emissions trend of coal power chain in different carbon constraint scenarios and pave the way to power structure optimization in China, then the paper analyzes the trend of some important electric power technologies based on scenario analysis method, and setting super (ultra) critical power technology, integrated gasification combined cycle power technology, carbon capture and sequestration technology's developing senarios of the main carbon emissions link—coal power generation link in 2010-2050, and then estimationing the carbon emissions of coal power generation link and it's carbon emissions contribution in 2010-2050.The specific study as follows:①Firstly, the paper gives an research overview on carbon emissions measurement methods at home and abroad at present. It analyzes the main characteristics and application situations of different carbon emissions measurement methods, then indicates the carbon emissions measurement method and prediction method to coal power chain—life cycle analysis method and scenario analysis method.②Secondly, it uses life-cycle analysis method, establishes the carbon emissions econometric model of coal energy chain that consists of coal production link, coal transport link and coal-fired generation link. By detailed calculation, it obtains carbon equivalent emissions of kilowatt in power generation stage which causes greenhouse gases emissions that come from coal-energy chain and its sub-links. By comparative analysis, it finds that power generation process is the major part of greenhouse gas emissions of coal-energy chain.③Then, the paper uses scenario analysis method to analyzes the key coal power technologies and their reduction parameters of coal power generation link in 2010-2050—ultra-supercritical power technology, integrated gasification combined cycle power technology and carbon capture and sequestration technology under different carbon emissions constraint situation, and gets the carbon emissions of coal power chain in different senarios. After that, according to the definition of coal power carbon emissions contribution, it gives a further measurement on coal power carbon emissions that caused by unit electricity generated that comes from the electric power industry in 2010-2050.④At last, the paper draws a conclusion as follows: reducing coal proportion as far as possible, promoting the application of integrated gasification combined cycle power technology and carbon capture and sequestration technology vigorously, developing water power, nuclear power and other new power energy forms actively, all of which will help to reduce the carbon emissions of the electric industry that caused by coal power.