| Coal has long occupied a large proportion in China’s energy consumption structure,and will continue to be an important energy source supporting China’s economic development for a long time to come.However,the large amount of carbon dioxide emitted during the combustion and conversion of coal is the main cause of global climate change.China’s "carbon peak" in 2030 and 2050 "carbon neutral" goals officially proposed in 2020 are for the low-carbon production of coal.The 14th Five-Year Plan also proposes to reduce energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 13.5%and 18%,respectively,by 2035.This means that the timely adjustment of the development direction of coal resources will become the primary content of China’s low-carbon energy development strategy in the future。But China’s energy consumption structure system determines that it is still difficult to reduce coal demand in a short period of time.Considering that the entire process of coal resources from development to utilization will produce different levels of carbon dioxide emissions,the perspective of the life cycle system for coal Accounting for carbon emissions in various links of resources and exploring the bottleneck of low-carbon development is of great significance to the construction of a modern energy system.In addition,accurately predicting the peak time of carbon emissions in the life cycle of coal resources can help to adjust the future development direction of coal resources in a timely manner,so as to maximize the scientific and reasonable assistance to achieve the "dual carbon" goal on schedule.This paper firstly defines and calculates the carbon emissions of coal resources at various stages from 2000 to 2019 from the perspective of the coal life cycle,and attempts to conduct a preliminary analysis of the changes in the amount;then use the LEAP platform to analyze Scenario analysis and forecasting of energy demand and total carbon emissions in each link of my country’s coal life cycle from 2020 to 2050.At the same time,the scenario analysis method is used to discuss the peak time of China’s energy consumption carbon emissions in the future,aiming to explore the low-carbonization of coal resources throughout the life cycle Specific strategies for development.The main findings of the research are:(1)After the release of various energy-saving and emission reduction documents and policies led by the supply-side structural reform in 2011,the total CO2 emissions during the coal production,transportation and consumption stages have been effectively controlled.Therefore,from the current stage of my country’s coal life cycle low-carbon development in terms of status,the peak of total energy consumption in the future is just around the corner.However,in contrast,due to the large base of energy demand in my country’s consumption link,the total carbon emissions are still on the rise,and more efforts may be needed to optimize the energy consumption structure of the whole society in the future.(2)With the help of LEAP software to predict the total energy demand and total carbon emissions of China’s coal life cycle from 2020 to 2050 under different scenarios.The results show that the baseline scenario,the coal control scenario and the enhanced coal control scenario will reach peak energy demand and carbon emissions in 2040,2030 and 2025,respectively.The coal control scenario basically can meet the energy demand and carbon emission peak requirements in 2030,but if the goal of "carbon neutral" in 2060 is to be achieved on schedule,the energy-saving rate is too ideal,posing a huge challenge to the energy-consuming industries and China’s new energy construction.In contrast,the enhanced coal control scenario will reach its peak earlier,and it will be able to gain more time to realize the transformation of energy consumption structure and the buffer and transition of new energy construction,and to the greatest extent possible scientifically and reasonably close the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060.In general,coal consumption is the key to control carbon emissions.The realization of the "dual-carbon"goal requires coal consumption to take the lead before 2030,preferably peaking around 2025,while ensuring the supply of non-fossil energy.The stability and scale of my China’s energy consumption structure are the most important conditions to support the optimization and adjustment of energy consumption structure.(3)Based on the prediction results of energy demand and carbon emissions in each link of the life cycle,although the total amount of production and transportation links is relatively small,there is still room for emission reduction.In the future,the coal mining and dressing industry needs to further release high-quality production capacity,while using technological innovation to focus on improving the level of intelligence in production,improving the energy efficiency of the production process,and making an important contribution to total carbon emissions control.In addition,because the energy consumption of coal railway transportation is affected by both the production and marketing relationship of the coal market and the transport power,the carbon emission control effect of coal transportation will be significantly better than other links under the trend that the total amount of coal transportation will decline and diesel locomotive will eventually be replaced by electric locomotive.According to the calculation results,the realization of my country’s energy "dual-carbon" goal in the future needs to be implemented from the following perspectives:①Continuously optimize and adjust the existing energy consumption structure;②Accelerate the elimination of outdated coal production capacity;③Improve coal transportation efficiency;④Promote Coal power to withdraw safely and orderly and strengthen the development of clean energy;⑤Develop and promote CO2 capture,utilization and storage technologies.In general,the key to low-carbon utilization of coal resources is to form a systemic low-carbon development concept for the entire industry chain of mining-storage-consumption-recycling life cycle.Figure 21 Table 14 Reference 160... |
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