Analyze The Incidence Tendency Of Main Legal Infectious Diseases In Taiyuan

objective: Although the infectious diseases no longer occupy the first place in the spectrum of diseases, pulmonary tuberculosis,virus hepatitis,gonorrhea,syphilis etc. have started to spread again. It is theoretically and practically important to confirm the incidence tendencies, to find out the theoretical epidemic rules, pre-estimate the development and adopt the effective intervention measures. The research of epidemiologic mathematical models has been widely concerned. To learn the spread tendency and to estimate the effects of preventions and controls, we built dynamic models of the epidemic situations of dysentery and pulmonary tuberculosis and explored the application value of the models in disease control and prophylaxis in this city. It will provide theoretical evidences to constitute the prevention and cure measures reasonably and effectively.【Method】We collected the infectious diseases and demographic data from 1994 to 2003 of Taiyuan city, and described the incidence rate of some infectious diseases and their distributions, in order to learn the dynamic condition of the main infectious diseases during the ten years in Taiyuan. We fitted the ARIMA model based on the incidence rate of dysentery, and applied gray model GM (1, 1) to analyze the incidence tendency of pulmonary tuberculosis in Taiyuan.【Result】1. Dysentery,the viral hepatitis,pulmonary tuberculosis,gonorrhea and syphilis have become the main infectious diseases which affect the health and the quality of life . The total incidence rate of infectious disease in Taiyuan from...