Research And Forecast Of Shanghai Housing Market

The argument about the bubble in REAL ESTATE market makes the government, the industry and the academia attaches importance to the establishment of the market information collection system and the alert system, in which the market alert system is the core and the advanced theory of quantitative analysis of market is its foundation. Econometrics is a subject to study the quantitative relationship among the economic variable employing statistic and mathematical method and it can interpret the evolvement of an economic phenomenon before the correlative economy theory, so it always leads the direction of economy research. The time series theory (especially the ARIMA technique) and the simultaneous equation theory is the core of this practical method of economy research.This paper established some static stochastic time series models mainly used the ARIMA technique and established a dynamic simultaneous equation model about the Shanghai housing market based on the monthly data cited from the Shanghai Statistic Bureau and the correlative yearbooks. At the end, the paper offered the forecast about the Shanghai housing market in a short term and argued applicable condition about the two method of modeling.Firstly, the article expatiates on the necessity of establishment of model of regional housing market and induces the present analysis approach; Secondly, the modeling method employed in the paper is offered in detail. Thirdly, the original data is adjusted using simple regression technique, and then the time series model and the dynamic simultaneous equation model is established in term of the interpretation in the step two. Finally, the forecast of the Shanghai housing market is offered using the models established before and the difference between the results using different model isexplained.