Based On Triangular Whitenization Weight Function Of The China Drought And Flood Meteorological Disaster Aisk Assessment And Zoning

Today meteorological disasters in China seriously affect the sustainable development of both national and local economies, with distinctive features of high frequency, wide distribution, strong intensity and heavy losses. So, a grey clustering evaluation model is constructed in this paper based on the historical data of drought and flood disaster from2004to2011, using indicators of disaster situation of crop, sufferers and direct economic losses. Through this model, risk assessment and zoning study are made on the regional drought and flood disasters, aiming at obtaining the gray clustering assessment results within this period, and thus drawing the dynamic zoning map about the risk of drought and flood disasters. By analyzing various possible causes and predicting interannual anomaly of these disasters, some policy recommendations are put forward, providing scientific and theoretical reference for the government to manage the disasters and make decisions on disaster prevention and mitigation. Main conclusions are summarized as follows:(1) Based on the evaluation model of grey comprehensive clustering, results of drought disasters show:Arid regions are moving southward, with drought scale and the degree of drought both on the increase. Specifically, during the period of2004-2011, Southwest in China was suffered the worst drought; Northeast was a more serious area by drought disaster; Central China was the moderate drought affected region; North China was slightly suffered by the drought disaster; and the other districts were micro drought-stricken, including East, Northwest and South China.(2) Based on the gray fixed weight clustering method, results of floods disasters indicate: During the period of2004-2011, Central China suffered the worst flood disaster with the highest frequency of floods occurrence; South China region was second only to the central China with a higher frequency; Southwest was slightly suffered by the flood disaster; and the other districts belonged to the least affected areas, including East, Northwest, Northeast and North China.(3) Zoning research on drought disasters of China:From2004to2011, losses caused by drought disasters were most serious in the year of2004,2007and2009, while the losses of the remaining five years were relatively slight. This result was consistent with the reality.(4) Zoning research on flood disasters of China:From2004to2011, flood disasters in the year of2004,2007and2010were more serious than the remaining five years, which was consistent with the reality.(5) Prediction on the analysis of abnormal annual of the drought disaster in China: According to the fact that the frequency of drought in Southwest ranks first in China, the chance of drought happened there is greatest; Northeast is followed by a great chance of drought; the probability of drought occurrence in Central and North China is relatively low while the probability values of East, Northwest and South China are even smaller.(6) Prediction on the analysis of abnormal annual of the flood disaster in China: Considering the fact that most flood disasters occurred mainly in central, southwest and southern regions of China, so the chance of flood disaster happened in East, North, Northeast, and Northwest China is relatively small. However, the probability of occurrence in Central, Southwest and South China is largest, and probability in East and Northwest China is followed, while the chance that flood disaster occured in Northeast and Northern China is the lowest.