Accuracy Evaluate And System Implementation Of Tropical Cyclone Forecast

This thesis evaluates the accuracy of the path, landing location and intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC) developed in the northwestern Pacific Ocean in 2012 and 2013. The data come from China Meteorological Administration, Japan Meteorological Agency, US National Centers for Environmental Prediction, European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and Canadian Meteorological Centre. A TC Forecast Accuracy Assessment System is also implemented.The thesis applies the mean error method to the evaluation of the forecast accuracy of the moving path, landing location and intensity of tropical cyclones. The distribution pattern of the errors are discussed. The Skill Score method is introduced to accommodate two missing aspects when the intensity forecast accuracy is evaluated.The study draws the following conclusions.(1) The forecast accuracy of all agencies are higher in 2013 than in 2012. The European Centre for Weather Forecasts has the highest TC path forecast accuracy, followed by the China Meteorological Administration. The TC path forecast accuracy becomes lower with the increase of forecast time.(2) The landing location forecast accuracy improves in 2013 for all agencies and most of forecast errors of the 24 h landing location are less than 350 km. The China Meteorological Administration and Japan Meteorological Agency both have forecasted the landing points of TCs which landed in China in advance of 24 h. The other international agencies prowide more than 90% of tropical cyclones landing points of forecast results.(3) The mean error of TC intensity forecasts increases with the increase of time. The European Centre for Weather Forecasts has the highest forecast accuracy; For all the 5 agencies, the 12 h forecasts have the best forecast accuracy; The Skill Score value of all agencies’ TC intensity forecasts does not decrease monotonically with the increase of time.(4) The European Centre for Weather Forecasts and the Japan Meteorological Agency forecast the trend of early TC’s intensity changes with the highest accuracy. As the TC strengthens itself, the forecast accuracy drops. In the weakening stage of a TC, all agencies’ forecast results tend to be inaccurate.(5) This thesis also presents a TC Forecast Accuracy Assessment System, which can show basic geographic data and the dynamic path of the TCs, download the latest data in real time, enable the users to make inquiries about historical data and evaluate forecast accuracy.