The Research And Application Of Grey Forecast Model

Grey system theory is one of the cutting-edge topics at science system, it is mainlydeveloped to study uncertainties of “small samples” and “poor information”. Grey forecastmodel is one of the most important part grey system theory, and it is meaningful to research ongrey forcast model. Therefore, grey system is researched as the main object, and the optimizationof grey prediction model GM(1,1) is studied as the content in this thesis. Firstly, the currentsituation of grey forecast model and its application of existing research results are introduced,and a comprehensive study about the mechanism and characteristics of GM (1,1) model iselaborated, then the background value with a adjustment factor is constructed. Not only the GM(1,1) model is optimized, but also the examples are used to verify its practical feasibility. Finally,the optimized grey GM (1,1) model is applied to the development of tourism in Hangzhou. Themain research works of this thesis are as follows:(1) A weakening buffer operator is constructed, and it is proved fully to comply with threebasic axioms of buffer operator.(2) According to the geometric meaning of the background value, a new background valuewith a adjustment factor is constructed, and the optimal results of GM (1,1) model are illustratedby a lot of numerical simulation. Meanwhile, the prediction accuracy and simulation accuracyabout optimization are unaffected by the development of factor, which breaking out therestrictions on the development coefficient of traditional grey model. And the examples provedthat the accuracy of the new constructed GM (1,1) model are significantly improved bycomparing with the traditional GM (1,1) model.(3) Application of the optimization of GM (1,1) model in the tourism industry in Hangzhouis explored in this thesis. Furthermore, the effectiveness and practicality of the optimizationmodel are demonstrated by examples.