Bayesian Approach On Technological Explanation

With the development of the Bayesian as a methodology, the Bayesian method is widely applied to scientific reasoning and scientific explanation in the field of philosophy of science. Bayesian method may also be used as a methodology in the study of philosophy of technology, such as some scholars have used Bayesian method to analyze the progress of technology. When talking about technological problems, the technology and technological phenomenon is the key to the research, which concern about problem of technological explanation. The research on technological explanation especially on technical artifact‘s explanation is built based on the development of structure and function, which results in "logical gap" and "hard problem".This paper focuses on solving the two problem of technical artifact‘s structure-function explanation, and raises a probably approach, which means building the Bayesian approach on technological explanation with a perspective of system theory and Bayesian method. Bayesian approach contains two basic premise in perspective of system theory, which exists the smallest unit of element-structure-function and the reasoning between structure and function can be treated as one kind of uncertainty reasoning. Based on the analysis of the application of Bayesian method in philosophy of science and the Bayesian methods applicable characteristics, this paper makes a full explanation how the Bayesian approach likely to be. The last part of this paper explain how to construct the Bayesian approach of technological explanation, through constructing the Bayesian network model about the automotive systems, which shows how to construct the Bayesian approach and defense the rationality of the model, then put forward how to correction model and how to realize the generalization of the model.This paper tries to establish some explanatory relations between structure and function of the technical artifacts through building the explanation model, which can promote the research about "logical gap" and "hard problem" in technical artificial field to a certain extent, and provide certain theoretical support for designers and engineers in the real level.