Scenario Prediction Of PSR Index System Of Shaanxi Province Atmosphere Pollutants Based On SPSS Model

In recent years, atmospheric pollution has been paid more and more attention,because the survival and development of human cannot do without the air, however,with the rapid development of economy and the unrestrained exploitation and usemuch on earth resources, air pollution has become more and more serious.Especially inour country, the development of China’s economy is sustained and rapid, lead to theenergy consumption demand is increasing quickly and the volume of motor vehicles isclimbing constantly, the air pollution in our country is a composite state,In recent years, the domestic research on air compound pollutants is rare andmostly remain in the theoretical research and system construction, research on ShaanxiProvince in this field is rare, Therefore, It is important to study the quantitative indexof air pollutants in Shaanxi Province, predict the future pollutant emission throughmethod of scenario analysis, which will help decision makers to control measures ofdeveloping more effective and correct decision policy for the future air pollutionsituation.This study used PSR model is the model of pressure state response, to analyze thecharacteristics of atmospheric pollution, to build the index system of atmospherepollution scenario prediction.This paper takes "pressure state response"(PSR) modelfor the concept, to build the index system of atmosphere pollution scenario analysis,then to construct pollutants multiple linear regression equation using SPSS software,set up three scenarios, for prediction of pollutant emissions in three scenarios. Thisstudy includes three aspects: build construction of atmospheric pollution index system,construct pollutants multiple linear regression equation using SPSS software, describes the scenario of pollutant emissions at the present stage and predict the future scenarios.(1) to describe the main features, formation and harm of atmosphere pollution inour country.(2) according to the basic idea of scenario analysis, using PSR model as theframework, to construct a atmosphere pollution scenario analysis index system, mainlyincluding pressure system, state system and response system.(3) using the SPSS model to analyze emission data and the pressure index data ofmain pollutants in this ten years (2001-2010) and get the multiple linear regressionequation of pollutant emissions.(4) By this stage, describes scenario analysis index system of Shaanxi airpollution, provide reference and basis for the next set predict future scenarios.(5) by changing the pressure index data to set different economic and socialdevelopment situation in the future(2015), for different scenarios using multiple linearregression equation of each pollutant, predict future emissions of various pollutants.