Complexity Of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

With the economic globalization of the world and the integrated development of the financial field, the exchange rate has more and more important influence on the economical operation, trade contacts, and international status of various countries. So, it is obviously very important to analysis prediction of exchanging rate fluctuate. Meanwhile, the economic system is a complicated huge system, and there are intricate relations between each economic variable inside it. The fluctuation of the exchange rate is even more like this. From "purchasing power parity" and "theory of interest-rate parity" to exchange rate overshooting of Dornbush, theories about the fluctuation exchange rate have emerged in an endless stream. These traditional research almost set up from the linear method and based on linear model and frame generally. However, more and more evidence have proved that linearity already cannot give efficient explanation to the complicated fluctuation of exchange rate. Since the 1980s, more and more economists and mathematician have been exploring and looking for some non-linear methods to explain the complicated fluctuation of exchange rate phenomenon and give the effective suggestion to the adjustment of the exchange rate. So, researching the exchange rate in terms of non-linearity, have very wide space and great realistic meaning.This text is divided into three parts on the whole. Have summarized some research and conclusions about the exchange rate question of scientists at first, pointing out the limitation of the traditional linear model structure, thus prove further the necessity of the exchange rate question with the non-linear method.Then the paper introduced the theory of chaos, fractal and phase space, and the judgment methods of chaos existing. After that, calculating the Hurst index, correlation dimension and lyapunov index about exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to Japanese yen and to European dollar have proved the non-linear character really exist in the exchange rate further, and pointed out that can't make the conclusion of long-term forecast to follow from actual conditions.