Dynamic Evaluation&Forecast Research On Economic Development Of Jiangsu Province

Regional economy strength between different area exists object during the economy development. Economic strength distance between cities result from several reasons and goes arise or down in the dynamic development. But how to analyze this distance objective and justice is a key problem for the government to make a policy or notice the problem during the economic development. So the thesis is based on this issue.The thesis is to analyze the economic development problem of Jiangsu province based on discussing the economic structure. As we know, Jiangsu is the second strong economic province and play a great important role in the national economy develop. Based on the latest statistic data from Jiangsu statistics, the thesis mainly talk about the economy in the next ten years, which is divided into three parts:Firstly, evaluate the strength of Jiangsu using the dynamic evaluation method of scatter degree; Secondly, evaluate the economy status of the three regions of Jiangsu province; At last, based on building the grey model, forecast the main economic indexes of Jiangsu in the twelfth five plan period, at the same time, every city is analyzed too.It should be mentioned that the weights computed simple through the model are good for rank the city economic strength. As the result is fit for the fact, we can infer that the model is credible and acceptable. Also, the forecast results suggest that the average GDP and people’s living standard are steady improved during the next five plan period and the aim of rising by10%of the average economic strength in Jiangsu province will accomplished. We can know that the economic strength, innovation ability, international competitiveness and continued developing are in well improving condition. At the same time, the economic strength during Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou is slowly reduced. And generally speaking, the economy of Jiangsu province in the next ten years will be steady and active, also the main index aim planed by the province government can be accomplished smoothly.