Centennial Climate Study On Temporal And Apatial Variation In Songnen Plain

In recent years, the global climate change significantly, such as global warming,sea level rise,extreme weather, natural disasters, our country also takes seriouslyconsideration, and more studies on climate change to tackle climate change issue.Songnen Plain as our country’s important commodity grain production basement,which located in northeast of the country, in recent years the temperature increasedeeply, extreme weather caused by climate change caused great impact on the grainproduction, frequent disasters take a serious threat on people’s production and life.Therefore, understanding the Songnen Plain climate change law has an importantreference significance. to improve the short-term climate prediction level and guide theagricultural production.The research of CRU data extracted from Songnen Plain from1901to2000total100years0.5°x0.5°resolution including monthly datas of temperature, precipitation,water vapor pressure, according to the meteorological factors in different impact factorin ArcGIS geostatistical analysis with interpolation calculations on the Songnen Plainaverage temperature, total precipitation and average water vapor pressure valueshundred years respectively. Three weather elements of temperature, precipitation andwater vapor pressure data for a hundred years trend analysis, such as trend analysis ofeach season in hundred years, the search of change mutation of a hundred years, theresearch about the temporal and spatial distribution yearly and temporal and spatialvariations, and then conducted a correlation analysis of three meteorological elementsand the establishment of the regression equation, and significant character analysis onthe various meteorological elements’ change of seasonal contribution.The main conclusions of this study are as follows(1) Temperature change of Songnen Plain centrally shows an overall increasingtrend, abnormally elevated temperature trend in the1940s and1980s respectively, andit has maintained a significant increasing trend in the1980s; the average temperaturetrend’s in each season compare with average temperature trend contemporary remainedthe same, centuries’ winter data warming sharpest; average temperature of0℃isotherm continue to move to the northeast; an average temperature increase of1.64℃ in Songnen Plain during the hundred year. showing the average temperature inascending order from northeast to southwest trend; warming area precisely associatedto the areas of rapid urban development.(2) Precipitation changes of Songnen Plain in a century showed an overall unusualincreasing trend in the1930s,1950s and1980s respectively, Seasonly precipitationtrends and ERA precipitation trends stay the same, summer precipitation in a centuryincrease sharpest. In the hundred years, the precipitation of the Songnen Plain increase57.6mm averagely, precipitation showed increasing trend from west to south-easterly.(3) The change of centuries vapor pressure in Songnen Plain generally increasingtrend. In the1930s,1940s and1980s, the trend of vapor pressure indicated an unusualincrease; the seasonal water vapor pressure variation trends and contemporary watervapor pressure trends remained consistently with the hundred year of summer vaporpressure the largest amount;During the hundred years, the vapor pressure of theSongnen Plain increased0.62hpa averagely. Vapor pressure illustrated the trendascending order from northeast to southwest.(4) Three of meteorological elements has a good correlation, then take threemeteorological element datas to multiple regression analysis, the Songnen Plaincentury as the leading factor y, precipitation and vapor pressure as x1and x2respectively, Analysis the interaction relation of temperature, precipitation and watervapor. Conclusion the function of the relation: y=-7.345-0.003x1+1.507x2,Where x1(precipitation) coefficient significant probabilistic Sig=0.01,which is a significantrelationship; x2(vapor pressure) coefficient significant probability Sig=0.00which isa significant relationship too.(5) Century winter temperatures in Songnen Plain influenced on the greatestamount of average temperature; Century summer precipitation in Songnen Plaininfluenced on the greatest amount of average precipitation in Songnen Plain; Centurysummer vapor pressure influenced on the greatest amount of average vapor pressure inSongnen Plain.(6)Centuries temperature mutation point of Songnen Plain appeared in1980; theprecipitation mutations appeared in two years in1913and1925; vapor pressure of themutation began from1926and1977.