Study On Forecasting, Control And Applications Of First-Order Linear PSI Systems

The operation of the system in the external environment being restricted and affected is acommon reality, prospective strong intervention (PSI) to the state of the system and theperformance of the system may be significant influenced the system or even caused the collapseof the system. In this paper, the background and current situation of the PSI have beenexpounded. The definition of cumulative type PSI and threshold type PSI has been given basedon that. The forecasting of initial time and terminational time of the two types have beengiven, respectively. In this paper, the first-order linear discrete-time control system model hasbeen taken as the mean study object. In the ideal environment (the system can provide anyenergy while it is needed), the estimate theorem of the optimal control of cumulative type PSIand threshold type PSI has been given, respectively. And in constraints occasions, the estimatemethod of the optimal control of cumulative type PSI and threshold type PSI has been given,respectively. Through analysis of the mechanism to induce the strong intervention, appliedresearch of the classification of strong interventions have been done, respectively.In this paper, first-order linear discrete-time control system model has been used todepicted the forecast of disaster and process control problem. The continuous andinducing great disasters climate (rainfall) changes have been used as the prospectivestrong intervention, and they have been used as a starting point in discussing the droughtor flood of long-term overcast and rainy, flood of heavy rainfall and other issues. In thispaper, the initial time and the terminational time of the disasters of flood and droughthave been estimated. The control of disasters are quantified in this paper. And the basicidea of the estimated of corresponding optimal control sequence have been given.