Ecological Carrying Capacity Of Coal Development In Ecological Fragile Region

Inner Mongolia is an ecological fragile region and of much resources. In this paper,taking example from Jungar, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) module and StepwiseRegression Analysis (SRA) module in SPSS are used to evaluate ecological carryingcapacity (ECC). The reasons of decreasing ECC is showed and its change curves of nextfive years point out that more protection of environment is required while mining coal.Following works have been carried out:(1) On the basis of analyzing cause of ecological fragile region (EFR) and current studysituation, modules of ECC assessment applied home and abroad are compared; According tothe characteristics of EFR, this paper put forward a method of PCA and SRA in combinationto evaluate ECC.(2) From a sustainable development standpoint, ECC of Jungar from2002to2010iscalculated by PCA-module. The results show that ecological capacity is mainly affected byover-exploitation of coal and decreasing ECC is produced by excessive pollution.(3) According to the evaluation of previous data, using SRA-module to set up a predictionmodel of ECC, gradually decreasing ecological capacity index of study area from2010isconcluded and tendency of ECC is towards no capacity.(4) Analysis on ECC status and trends show that regional integrated ECC is mainlyinfluenced by resource and environment. To avoid environmental degradation caused bymining and to maintain the virtuous circle of ecology, this paper proposes the environmentalprotection strategy: accelerating our research in green mining theory and technology,introducing new&high-tech, improving the planning for resources and their management,developing the recycling economy.