Analysis On Ecological Footprint And Sustainable Development Of Qian’an County Within Sixty Years

In recent years, there are more and more environmental problems with the rapid development of economy. The major problem of the national economic construction is whether social economy and environment can realize the sustainable and coordinated development.With the awareness of people’s consciousness towards environmental protection, the sustainable and coordinated development of regional environment has become hot issue of experts all over the world.In this paper, on the basis of traditional ecological footprint model and energy analysis theory, the energetic ecological footprint theory (EEF) was applied to analyze the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Qian’an county within60years. The main work in this paper was conducted as follows:Based on the ecological situation of Qian’an county in2009, traditional ecological footprint model and energetic ecological footprint model were used to analyze contrastively. The results were as follows:the ecological deficit calculated by the traditional ecological footprint model was5.1728hm2, while the ecological deficit calculated by the energetic ecological footprint model was12.2740hm2.The two results both indicated that the county was in the status of ecological deficit, but ecological deficit of the latter was larger than the former. Energetic ecological footprint model had thought about the energy flow. It really reflected the ecological situation in this region. Therefore energetic ecological footprint model was used to calculate in this paper.The energetic ecological footprint theory (EEF) was applied to analyze the energetic ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Qian’an county from1949to2008. Based on the EEF method, this paper focused on analyzing the ecological surplus and deficit, ecological coordination coefficient, environment stress, ecological overload index, and sustainability index to Evaluate the sustainable development of Qian’an county. Results indicated that from1949to2008, the per capita ecological footprint of Qian’an county continued to rise at the average annual rate of19.3%, and the per capita ecological carrying capacity decreased by10.2%year by year. This region was in ecological surplus from1949to1978, and the per capita ecological carrying capacity decreased from5.7842hm2per capita in1949to0.2539hm2per capita in1978, decreasing by18.4%every year. While from1983to2008, the ecological deficit increased year by year. The per capita ecological deficit increased rapidly from3.3342hm2in1983to11.8992hm2in2008,32.9%in annual rise rate. Hence the social economic and ecological environment of Qian’an county within60years was not in the state of coordinated development. SPSS16.0software was used to forecast the energetic ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, and ecological surplus and deficit of Qian’an county in the next10years. And the state of sustainable development of Qian’an county in the future was predicted and evaluated. The results presented an increasing tendency of per capita ecological footprint of Qian’an county in the next10years. But the per capita ecological carrying capacity would be weakening gradually which would cause ecological deficit increasingly year by year. Therefore, the natural eco-system would be subject to substantial damage if Qian’an county continued the current development model. This model would be against the sustainable development and lead to the result that the natural ecosystem couldn’t be natural repair.