Based On Grey Model And The Movement Of Crustal Deformation Prediction And Gis Technology Research

The earth’s crustal horizontal and vertical movement has become a common geological phenomenon.The regional earth’s crust is affected by the occurrence of earthquake, tectonic movement, urban construction, underground resources mining etc. Especially after the Ms8.0magnitude Wenchuan earthquake, Guanzhong area as the worst-hit area also suffered huge economic losses and casualties.People are very concern of how dose the earthquake affect to reginal crustal movement and what is the trend of crustal movement in the future.Therefore, the issues of research on regional movement rules and its deformation are on the ropes.Gray theory can solve this problem of crustal deformation which are characteristics of small sampled modeling and short-term forecast. This paper is based on the characteristics of geomorphology and earth crustal movement in Guanzhong area and takes the Grey System Theory into the research on crustal deformation prediction.At the same time, adjusting the Grey Model that make it suitable for earth crustal movement prediction research in Guanzhong area.Based on the achievement of reaearch and GPS network net data in Guanzhong area,drewing the2D vector diagram and3D simulation diagram by space analysis means in the soft of ArcGIS.The paper analyzes the crustal movement characterristics which separated from2004to2010,2010to2011and2011to2012. Finally, achieved the analysis of earth crustal stability by GIS in Guanzhong area based on the existed data of2004to2011, simulated data and rift zone information.The main research results as follows:(1) Modified the original GM (1,1) model with buffer molecules and errors correction, established new improved GM (1,1) model and introduced the process of model building and parameters solving particularly. Proved the improved GM (1,1) model is good to carry on anticipative prediction of horizontal and vertical data in Guanzhong area and realized the2011to2012data of earth crustal movement.(2) Drewed the horizontal movement characteristics graph, vertical movement equal value graph and3D vertical movement simulation diagram by ArcGIS,which is based on GPS data and Grey predictive data.At same time, combined with the crustal movement mechanism to analyze the regional earth trend.(3)Analyzed the crustal stability in Guanzhong area can prove as follows:The whole area showed stable.Relatively stable region takes more than70%of the total area, the relatively unstable region distribute middle west area.The results correspond with practice instance.