The Grey System Theory Predict The Ecological Development Trend Of Dalian City And Compare To The Homogeneous City

Urban development has encountered many problems, such as serious environmental pollution, rapid population growth, dwindling arable land, deteriorating the ecological environment and so on. This is a big barrier to the health, positive development of urban. And constructing the ecological city is to seek the way of the rational development way of city.Paper starting from the background and current situation of the eco-city development at home and abroad, and explain the significance of the study of ecological city construction, to begin with the development status of eco-city in Dalian, the paper refers to the selected method of evaluation index system of eco-city at home and abroad. Selecting from the natural, social and economic aspects to evaluate eco-city of Dalian City required for evaluation. After that, the paper forecast the index data of Dalian City from2010to2020by the use of gray prediction method. By2010, the paper makes comparison analysis on the forecast data and actual data which is so consistent to prove that the forecast data has the actual research significance. The ecological city construction of Dalian should be intensify efforts to in urban public green space construction,"three wastes" treatment rate of city, medical facilities, the environmental protection investment, education, urban residents income etc. At last, the paper selected the homogeneity city of Dalian City, Qingdao City which is located in the Bohai Sea region and is similar in the location factors of the eco-city development to analogy analysis that is why I chose the comparison study of Qingdao City, as an eco-city development in Dalian City. The paper uses the same method to deal with the indicators data in Qingdao City. Then we predict the index data in Qingdao city between2010with2020, while contrasting and analyzing the ecological development tread of Dalian and Qingdao. After that, assignment the Level two index of the ecological city index system, then analysts the data of the ecological city index system from2000to2020years.The results of the study show that, Dalian2000-2020years of ecological city construction overall is rising, But the speed of ecological city construction is less than the Qingdao’s. The city’s ecological development of Dalian and Qingdao predicted in2015gap grew. By2019the development of Dalian’s speed upgrade to a larger extent. Then draw on the advantages of eco-city development in Qingdao to Dalian, and gradually make Dalian city ecological city construction, the development of science sustainable into orbit.